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2003:7 Party Preference Surveys, Their Application in Society and the Issue of Quality |
Jindřich Krejčí |
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The purpose of this study is to familiarise readers with the issue of how surveys in which a sample of the population is interviewed are applied in a democratic society, and to provide an overview of Czech surveys, their types and methodology, and make a critical assessment of Czech research in comparison with the internationally recognised criteria for social research. The study describes how public opinion research related to predicting voting outcomes has evolved and become widespread, and in the context of a democratic society it focuses on the issue of the use of such surveys in politics and on the consequences that stem from the reverse impact of publishing the results. The study also examines fundamental criticisms targeting the methods employed in quantitative research, and draws attention to the risks connected with the development of new technology and the growth in the number of research surveys and to the controversial relationship that exists between the demands of journalism and the capabilities of research. Further the study provides a summary of research surveys in the Czech Republic: it gives a brief description of the history and current status of the surveys in this country, it provides an overview of the most significant projects and the types of research and their various kinds of outcome, and it compares the results of the surveys with real election results and conducts a general assessment of the quality of Czech party preference surveys in the light of the internationally recognised standards of the association AAPOR and the criteria of quality recommended in a memorandum issued by the DFG.
Summary
The emergence of research surveys, the spread of their use and further development, has been closely connected with the use of voting surveys. The influence of surveys on democracy has also become a subject of some discussion. Research surveys tend to be considered to be an instrument of democracy that has the potential to mediate citizens‘ influence on decision-making. However, that public opinion research should dictate the process of decision-making must be branded a form of populism and rejected. But this does not mean that the use of surveys in politics – where they serve as a source of information and political intelligence in the formulation of policies and as a strategy for the maintenance of power – should be rejected too. Surveys can act as a safeguard against the manipulation of elections, as long as the surveys have an independent source. Surveys also assist voters in the process of making decisions. They have the potential to not only measure public opinion but even to form it. In countries with a consolidated democracy and a high standard of living, public opinion research is common phenomenon and no real obstacles are placed against the publication of the survey results. It remains however essential that rigorous attention is paid to the quality and independence of research surveys and the analyses and interpretations that are then published.
Research surveys fulfil a practical function and they produce a good deal of information that could not otherwise be determined. The knowledge that it produces however is by no means exhaustive or the answer to everything. The point of departure is never the methodology but rather a question, solidly grounded in theory, to which an answer is sought. The most important factors in the development of this kind of research have been the expansion of information technology and international cooperation. One problem is the imbalance between the exacting character of the organisation of the research and the technical side of the presentation of data, which is misused for the purpose of unfair competition, and is so mainly where there is a lack of qualifications on the part of those gathering the data. While the large majority of survey results are used in media news reports, the relationship between journalism and research is controversial. The ideal of media reporting is to deliver tables of data that can be taken in quickly and to shift aside any theory and generalising interpretations, and these demands are in conflict with the requirements of proper social analysis.
There is a relatively long tradition of Czech survey research, but the continuity of its development has been interrupted several times. After 1989 such research expanded, but its share in research and development overall has remained small. There now exists a competitive environment with the necessary know-how and technical background, and the kind of research being conducted includes continual surveys of preferences, specialised pre-election surveys, and election exit polls. Various types of outcome are also available. For research on party preferences conducted in the Czech Republic there exist relatively reliable and professionally prepared research surveys, but at the same time there are also some activities of low or variable quality and with a fluctuating reliability of results.
The international criteria for quality include the administrative standards ISO 9000, technical standards of professional associations, for example ESOMAR and AAPOR, and recommendations drawn up by the professional community, e.g. DFG. The guarantor of standards within the Czech Republic is the association SIMAR. The majority of surveys carried out in the Czech Republic do not meet the international standards in the area of sampling methods. The reason for this is mainly the barriers of the external environment, which put demands for efficiency in conflict with the possibilities of organising a scientifically sound research survey. In comparison with quota sampling the probability methods do not always deliver the most accurate outcome, but their advantage is the greater control they offer over the research process. The major Czech surveys are sufficient in size. Considerable attention is devoted to the construction of the questions. Representative preference polls are based on a personal standardised interview. SIMAR sets out detailed rules for the work of interviewers, but there do exist differences in the quality of interviewer networks employed by the individual agencies. The minimum requirements for the presentation of results are met. Press releases represent a compromise between social analysis and the demands of media news reporting. In the surveys the protection of the personal data of respondents is usually ensured.
For the healthy operation of democracy, free access to sources of information, including research output, is essential. An important factor in the promotion of greater professionalism in Czech research is the level of domestic demand and the related interest in professionally prepared outcome. The precondition for this is not just sufficient economic strength but also the ability to make distinctions in the quality of research. This applies even in the case of a qualified approach to the analysis of data and its interpretation.
Key words
Voting preferences, voting behaviour, voting studies, research survey, public opinion research, sample research survey/sample, methodology of social research, quality of research, data quality, validity, reliability.
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Výzkumy stranických preferencí, jejich uplatnění ve společnosti a jejich kvalita |
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