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2009:10 Senate Elections from 1996 to 2008 |
Tomáš Lebeda, Karolína Malcová, Tomáš Lacina |
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The autumn of 2008 marked twelve years since the first senators were elected to the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic. In the Senate, one-third of the seats rotate every two years, so in 2008 it was the seventh round of Senate elections to take place. Although the Senate has only existed since 1996, because of the two-year interval between elections to the upper chamber they are the most frequent elections held in the Czech Republic. Nevertheless, as the weaker and, in the public view, less popular chamber of the Czech Parliament, the Senate has thus far remained outside the scope of research focusing on elections. This study examines the elections to the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic throughout its existence. The main objectives are to analyse the effect of the – in this country – unique two-round majority system on the election process and describe the main specific features of voter support for candidates of different parties. The study focuses on the success and representation of individual parties and compares the Senate election results with the results of elections to the Chamber of Deputies. It also looks at the long-term record low voter participation in Senate elections, which has no parallel in other Czech elections. The subject is studied using data on Senate elections from 1996 to 2008 describing election results and other election data, the individual characteristics of all the candidates who have ever take part in the Senate elections, and regionally aggregated social, demographic, and economic characteristics of individual electoral districts and other contextual political variables.
Keywords
Elections, senate, two-round majority system, voter participation, voting behaviour
Summary
Elections to the Senate in the Czech Republic are held under a majority electoral system. They differ significantly from other elections held in the Czech Republic, which follow a system of proportional representation. In this study, the first chapter, by Karolína Malcová, describes the basic rules that govern the course of Senate elections and the method used to evaluate the results. It focuses specifically on the two-round majority system and compares it with other majority systems. It then looks at where else in the world this system is used and what type of electoral system is most widespread. It then examines the theory of the two-round electoral system and specifically the majority run-off electoral system. First it defines the basic features and categories of two-round systems, which are distinguished by different voting principles and by the method used to convert votes to seats. It then focuses in more detail on the two-round system that is used in the elections to the Senate in the Czech Republic.
The second chapter, by Tomáš Lebeda, analyses the results of previous Senate elections. In the entire period that the Senate in the Czech Republic has existed a total of 1685 candidates have run for seats in this chamber in the seven elections that have been held between 1996 and 2008. When by-elections are included, which are held outside the regular election terms in the autumn of every other year, a total of 250 election contests have taken place. There have been only nine cases of a candidate managing to win an absolute majority in the first round of voting. The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) has long dominated first-round Senate elections. Their candidates have won first position in 155 cases. On the whole, ODS candidates have failed to proceed into the second round from first or second position in the first round in only 12.4% of cases, which makes ODS the hegemon of first-round voting. The most frequent contest in the second round is between candidates from the two largest parties, ODS and the Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), followed by contests between ODS and the Christian Democratic – Czech People’s Party (KDU-ČSL) and between ODS and a member of some other smaller party. However, the absolute dominance of ODS in first-round voting is not reproduced in the second round. Of the 211 candidates from ODS who took part in the second round, only 91 won a Senate seat in the second round. Conversely, ČSSD is the party that progresses into the second round most often from second place in the first round. Unlike ODS, it is relatively often able to turn this disadvantage around and in the second round ultimately defeat the opponent who in the first round won the most votes.
The two-round majority system has proved itself a mechanism capable of penalising candidates who belong to a party that has many supporters but even more opponents. The frequent negative voting that occurs in the second round helps elect candidates who are viewed as more consensual. In the early Senate elections ODS suffered most from this, but the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) has suffered from it consistently. The two-round system has thus confirmed its reputation of being able to limit the influence of anti-system, extreme, or radical parties with no coalition potential.
Despite the fact that the disproportionality of the election results in the Senate is consistently higher, no real concentration of parties has occurred in the upper chamber and its fragmentation is similar to that found in the Chamber of Deputies. However, the last elections in 2008 produced such a different outcome (85% of seats went to the winning ČSSD) that it is necessary to wait to see whether a similar trend will repeat itself in the future. However, the fact that only one-third of the Senate seats rotate with each election prevents the election results from creating a dramatic turnaround in Senate composition.
The third chapter, by Tomáš Lacina, examines the long-term low voter turnout. This has characterised elections to the upper chamber of the Czech Parliament from the very start. This trend began with the very first Senate elections in 1996, when, much to the surprise of many, 35% of eligible voters took part in the first round of voting, and then only 30.6% of eligible voters took part in the second round. Senate elections remained of marginal interest to voters in the following years. A sign of a turnaround came in the last two Senate elections in 2006 and 2008, when more voters turned out for the elections to the upper chamber than had participated in the two elections to the European Parliament held to date. The distribution of voter participation across electoral districts has been uneven. Voter participation varied considerably among electoral districts especially in the first Senate elections in 1996. Such disproportions in the second round of the elections have resulted in different thresholds for winning a seat in different districts, which in some cases has proved to be a key factor in determining in the final election outcome.
The geographic distribution of districts with very low participation compared to the national average has been very consistent over the course of all three cycles of Senate elections. For the most part districts with low turnout tend to be in the industrial regions of Northwest Bohemia and Northern Moravia. In these regions voter participation in elections to the Chamber of Deputies is also typically low. Districts with above-average voter participation are found mainly in Central and Eastern Bohemia, but in 2002 several districts in Southern Moravia also had a low turnout. The capital city of Prague represents something of an exception to the relative consistency of low or above-average voter participation. In 1996 the majority of Prague electoral districts were at the top of the ladder in turns of voter turnout. However, in the second and third cycles of Senate elections voter participation in Prague electoral districts was not above average.
An interesting phenomenon is the decline in voter participation that occurs between the first and second rounds of Senate elections. This phenomenon is relatively common to two-round electoral systems, but during the second and third cycle of the Senate elections in the Czech Republic it reached an extreme. In the Senate elections in 1996 the decline in voter participation between the first and second rounds was around 4.5 percentage points. In the following Senate elections the rate of voter participation in the election rounds was strongly influenced by the fact that first and second rounds of the Senate elections coincided with elections to the district and regional representative bodies. Everything suggests that when some other type of election is held at the same time as the first or second round of Senate elections this affects and increases the rate of voter participation in the Senate rounds.
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1993:09 Sociální a mzdové problémy zaměstnanců malých a středních soukromých podniků |
1993:08 Sociální postavení rodiny jako základního činitele a adresáta sociální pomoci |
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1993:04 Revolution for Whom? Analysis of selected patterns of intragenerational mobility in the Czech Republic |
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1993:01 Microsoft Word verze 5.5. Uživatelská příručka |
1992:09 Historical Comparison of Social Stratification Types in Czechoslovakia 1967-1991 |
1992:08 Rodina '89. Úloha mentálních schopností a sociálního původu ve formování vzdělanostních aspirací |
1992:07 The Zero Generation of Small Business Owners in Czechoslovakia |
1992:06 Time Use of Small Business Owners. Results and Methodological Comments |
1992:05 Perception of Changing Inequality in Czechoslovakia |
1992:04 Vybrané kapitoly z uživatelské příručky Microsoft Word verze 5.0 |
1992:03 Politické strany a hnutí v Československu |
1992:02 Politische Partien und Bewegungen in der Tschechoslowakei |
Prague in the New Central Europe. International conference 2-4 June 1990 |
1991:09 Vybrané kapitoly z uživatelské příručky Microsoft Word verze 5.0 |
1991:08 Nultá podnikatelská generace |
1991:07 Rodina '89. Zdroje vzdělanostních nerovností |
1991:06 Hodnotové orientace československé mužské mládeže a jejich vztah k obraně vlasti |
1991:05 Gender and the Employment of Higher Education Graduates in Czechoslovakia |
1991:04 Územní vztahy, územní a státoprávní uspořádání České republiky v názorech obyvatel |
1991:03 Social Problems of Participation in the Changing Czechoslovak Economy |
1991:02 K postavení žen v československé společnosti |
1991:01 Socialist Czechoslovakia - System Error and Premises for Change |
1990:06 Názory na rozvoj soukromého podnikání |
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1990:03 Who Gains and Who Loses in a Socialist Redistribution |
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1990:01 Beyond Educational Inequality in Czechoslovakia |
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