Yukihiko Nakata, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Hungary, and Graduate School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Tokyo, Meguroku Komaba 3-8-1, Tokyo, e-mail: nakata@math.u-szeged.hu, nakata@ms.u-tokyo.ac.jp; Gergely Röst, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Hungary, e-mail: rost@math.u-szeged.hu
Abstract: We describe the global dynamics of a disease transmission model between two regions which are connected via bidirectional or unidirectional transportation, where infection occurs during the travel as well as within the regions. We define the regional reproduction numbers and the basic reproduction number by constructing a next generation matrix. If the two regions are connected via bidirectional transportation, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ characterizes the existence of equilibria as well as the global dynamics. The disease free equilibrium always exists and is globally asymptotically stable if $R_0<1$, while for $R_0>1$ an endemic equilibrium occurs which is globally asymptotically stable. If the two regions are connected via unidirectional transportation, the disease free equilibrium always exists, but for $R_0>1$ two endemic equilibria can appear. In this case, the regional reproduction numbers determine which one of the two is globally asymptotically stable. We describe how the time delay influences the dynamics of the system.
Keywords: SIS model; asymptotically autonomous system; global asymptotic stability; Lyapunov functional; transport-related infection
Classification (MSC 2010): 34K05, 92D30
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