The PERUN project focuses on the research of climatic extremes, drought and the consequences of climate change in the Czech Republic. The project is guaranteed by the Czech Ministry of the Environment and carried out by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), the Czech Geological Survey, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics and Faculty of Science of the Charles University, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CzechGlobe, TG Masaryk Water Research Institute and PROGEO Ltd.
Detailed descriptionMain objective of the project is to create a research center that would focus on the research in the field of climate change in long term. This includes an analysis of the ongoing change and predicting future trends, including the identification of threats for the environment as well as for the society. Outcome of the project will be the most up-to-date material necessary for the preparation and update of strategic documents and for decision processes not only in the field of climate change adaptation, but also for the evaluation of mitigation measures during the process of their preparation and realization. Minimum outcome of the individual objectives set in the project will be a publicly available summary research report along with public databases, certified methodologies and of course scientific publications.
Climate research is focused on the region of the Czech Republic (CR), with high horizontal resolution. Even though there are or will be other, similarly focused projects elsewhere in the world, the calculations won´t be focused on the CR. It is important to understand that despite the fact that the climate forecast models are similar in that they model basic physical processes in the atmosphere, in reality they differ in the selection of certain physical parameters or use different values for the particular parameters. These parameters are optimized to provide the best possible results for the region of interest. Therefore, the results of projects, which will include the region of the CR, are not ideal for further calculations of the Czech climate. Even though the computational power quickly increases, one must make a compromise between the region size and resolution. In this project, the resolution planned for this project is relatively high so the region of interest, i.e. the Czech Republic, must ideally lie close to the center of the modelled region to prevent a potential bias in the calculations introduced by the conditions on the region edges. This condition, however, cannot be satisfied by models in other projects focused on climatological studies of other regions of interest. We are aware of the uncertainties associated with the results. The research of these uncertainties is, therefore, an essential part of this project and close attention is paid to this issue in comparison to other similar projects.
A unique characteristic of this project is also the involvement of researchers from various institutions and of various specialization. Such diversity should lead to a broad analysis of the topic and should help to better assess the uncertainties associated with the gathered results.
This project is co-financed with state support of the Technology Agency Czech Republic as part of the Program Environment for Life.
End user of the results is the Ministry of the Environment.
Contact person: Ing. Tereza Davidová, Ph.D. (tereza.davidova@mzp.cz)
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Development of tools for simulating the atmosphere-hydrosphere system enabling detailed simulation of this system behavior on a national scale of the Czech Republic. |
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Improving the accuracy of the climate change scenarios for the region of the Czech Republic |
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System for creation of seasonal forecast of climatological conditions and drought for the region of the Czech Republic in the context of the central Europe |
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Complex evaluation of threats in the context of climate change and variability |
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Extending the system of operational management during a drought episode and making it more accurate |
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Improving the accuracy of the information about the hydrological system |
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Improving the accuracy of information related to the impacts on landscape and its function / ecosystem service |
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Development and update of materials for updating strategic documents in the field of climate change adaptation |
| Czech Hydrometeorological Institute |
RNDr. Radim Tolasz, Ph.D., project co-ordinator (radim.tolasz@chmi.cz) Ing. Eliška Polcarová, Ph.D. (eliska.polcarova@chmi.cz) MgA. Monika Hrubalová (monika.hrubalova@chmi.cz) |
| Czech Geological Survey |
Mgr. Ondrej Nol (ondrej.nol@geology.cz) RNDr. Renáta Kadlecová (renata.kadlecova@geology.cz) |
| Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University |
doc. RNDr. Tomáš Halenka, CSc. (tomas.halenka@mff.cuni.cz) Mgr. Michal Žák, Ph.D. (michal.zak@mff.cuni.cz) |
| PROGEO, s. r. o. |
RNDr. Martin Milický (progeo@1progeo.cz) Ing. Jan Uhlík, Ph.D. (progeo@1progeo.cz) |
| Faculty of Science, Charles University | prof. RNDr. Bohumír Janský, CSc. (bohumir.jansky@natur.cuni.cz) |
| Institute of Atmospheric Physics | doc. RNDr. Zbyněk Sokol, CSc. (sokol@ufa.cas.cz |
| Global Change Research Institute |
prof. Ing. Zdeněk Žalud, Ph.D. (zdenek.zalud@mendelu.cz) Mgr. Pavel Zahradníček, Ph.D. (zahradnicek.p@czechglobe.cz) |
| T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute |
Ing. Adam Vizina, Ph.D. (adam.vizina@vuv.cz) Ing. Josef Nistler (josef.nistler@vuv.cz) |
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Ministry of the Environment (project user and guarantor) |
Ing. Tereza Davidová, Ph.D. (tereza.davidova@mzp.cz) |
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Adaptation of the current forecast model ALADIN to ALADIN-CLIMATE, its operation and preparation of inputs for other organizations and subsequent research. This will include calculations of surface water balance in short-term and long-term perspective. Transition to a distributed model of hydrological balance will improve reciprocal compatibility with the new SoilClim_2 model. It will also make it easier to use data from remote sensing. The determination of the relationship between precipitation/inflow (infiltration or creation of natural sources)/groundwater levels (fluctuation of groundwater levels)/basic outflow is crucial for groundwater status. Such relationship will be used for the evaluation of groundwater reserves and for the prediction of climate change impacts on these reserves. An up-to-date map of basic outflow will be devised for the purposes of water management institutions.
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Climate change scenarios up to year 2100 will include not just the basic climatological and agroclimatological characteristics, but also a description of the hydrological cycle and changes of the soil climate.
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Preparation and testing of resources for seasonal forecasts of climatological conditions focusing on drought are a major challenge of the entire project. The possibilities of using the current systems of seasonal forecasting will be analyzed and outputs compared with the results of measurements from the region of the Czech Republic. Also, the outputs of the model will be analyzed in the same way, downscaled using the ALADIN-CLIMATE with the aim to predict the basic characteristics for the period of upcoming 1-6 months and 7-12 months and to test the possibilities of forecasting drought in the Czech Republic several months ahead.
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Evaluation of the threats associated with the current climate change, including estimates of the development of such threats up until the end of this century with the aim to define the hydrometeorological events that present a threat for the society either on their own or in combination with other factors. A detailed analysis of extreme precipitation events will be performed taking into consideration the mechanism of their origin. Scenarios of the Czech Republic bioclimate future trend are also analyzed in detail using summary information about bioclimatology in the CR since 1961. Research will further include the determination of bioclimatological characteristics trends with an emphasis on temperature comfort/discomfort for humans in the period between 1961 and 2020.
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Output of the analyses related to the onset and course of drought episodes will be evaluated including propositions of changes in operational management. The drought episode monitoring will be improved and materials for issuing warnings prepared.
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It is essential to monitor the changes in the hydrological regime characteristics. Regional estimates of predicted precipitation amount for rain episodes of various lengths (10min to 3 days) will be prepared. Regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and estimates of changes in the predicted precipitation amount as a result of climate change will be included. Changes in surface water regimes will be assessed, in particular minimum discharges, where surface water comes exclusively from groundwater sources. In addition, the development of hydrological drought duration and values of the associated minimum discharges averaged over various periods (7 days, 30 days) will be assessed. Climatic model outputs will allow assessing the probable rate of change of minimal discharges in the future. Selection of adaptation measures will be evaluated in undeveloped landscape focusing on drought impacts and extreme precipitation-outflow events. Building up on the improvement of climatic and precipitation scenarios accuracy, mathematical modelling of reference regions will be used to assess the effects of these measured on hydrological regime of the particular landscape component. The information will be used for zoning the region of the Czech Republic with respect to the suitability of particular measures.
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Impacts of climate change on landscape will be analyzed and assessed. This will include a detailed analysis dealing with the impacts of changes in soil-climatic conditions and phenological development on ecosystems in the period from 1961 to 2020 and under future conditions based on simulations from climatic models. In case of uncontrolled ecosystems, this will mean particularly the shift in vegetation degrees and changes in phenophases of selected plant species and pests. In case of controlled ecosystems, this will mean shift in zoning of productive regions, impacts on crop yield and quality of selected crops and changes in phenophases. Determination and description of the impacts of hydrological extremes, in particular hydrological drought, on changes in surface water quality based on particular pollution parameters. Research will also include basic physico-chemical parameters of selected micropollutants. Attention will be given to changes in climate variability and the associated impacts on landscape. Models will be prepared for estimating the level of danger for production services of the landscape. Zoning based on the level of danger will be prepared based ona detailed analysis of selected characteristics and their expected changes. Variant emission and CO2 drops quantification will be prepared for agricultural and forest soils in the CR based on defined scenarios of the development (projections) of production conditions (changes in zoning and land use). This will also include implementation of adaptation management, in case of forest ecosystems including variants of expected regime disturbances. Changes in climate conditions highlight the need for the implementation of adaptive measures for maintaining sustainability of key ecosystem services of cultivated landscape at highest possible level both in terms of their productivity aspects and non-productivity aspects.
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Update of the National action plan for climate change adaptation and national adaptation strategy is a continuous process, which, however, always stems from the most current outputs of scientific analyses in the field of climate change, its manifestation, impacts and threats for natural and social processes. A synthesis of outputs from the entire scientific center will be prepared so that it is possible to update the particular strategic documents at the level of the Czech government and government departments.
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The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is a state-funded institution of the Ministry of the Environment. It is the central national body in the fields of air quality, hydrology, water quality, climatology and meteorology. The institute is responsible for the area of the entire Czech Republic. Apart from the headquarters in Prague there are regional offices in Brno, Ostrava, Ústí nad Labem, Hradec Králové, Plzeň and České Budějovice. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute is a research organization within the meaning of the EU regulation 651/2014, Article 2.83.
CHMI is the main participant of the PERUN project (Prediction, Evaluation and Research for Understanding National sensitivity and impacts of drought and climate change for Czechia).
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The Czech Geological Survey is a respected state organization, which creates, stores and provides unbiased expert geological information for civil service, private sector and the public. It is state-funded organization and research institute of the Ministry of the Environment, responsible for performing national geological services in the region of the Czech Republic. It is the only institute, role of which is research of geological composition for the entire region of the Czech Republic. Activities of the Czech Geological Survey are based on optimum connection between services for the society and high-end research in the field of geological sciences, natural resources, geological risks and protection of the environment. Being an internationally renowned organization it flexibly responds to the demands of long-term sustainable development of the society and in the meantime plays a significant role in the popularization of geology.
Main activities of the CGS include geological services in accordance with the Act 62/1988 (regarding geological works), regional research, geological mapping and creation of 3D geological models for the region of the Czech Republic, basic and applied research in the field of geological risks, natural raw materials, groundwater sources, protection of soil conditions and protection of the environment, gathering, storing and assessing information about geological composition of areas, natural raw materials and geological risks in the region of the Czech Republic, providing geoscientific information and expert support in making decisions of state or public interest, international co-operation and foreign development support and education in geoscientific disciplines and in the field of protection of the environment.
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The Charles University is, based on the QS World University Rankings 2019, the highest-ranking university in the Czech Republic. Based on the Academic Ranking of World Universities it ranks between 76-100th place globally in the field of economy, which is the highest ranking amongst post-communist countries. Two faculties of the university will be involved in the project.
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The Charles University is, based on the QS World University Rankings 2019, the highest-ranking university in the Czech Republic. Based on the Academic Ranking of World Universities it ranks between 76-100th place globally in the field of economy, which is the highest ranking amongst post-communist countries. Two faculties of the university will be involved in the project.
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www.ufa.cas.cz/en/homepage-en/
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Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (GCRI). GCRI is a public research institution, European center of excellence investigating the ongoing global change and its impact on the atmosphere, biosphere and human society through the use of the latest techniques and instrumentation.
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T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, public research institution (TGM WRI, p.r.i.), is an organisation focused both on applied and basic research, and providing research solutions in water management and waste management.
Main fields of interest are the research on status, use and changes of aquatic ecosystems and their linkages in landscape and related environmental risks, waste and packaging waste management, as well as the professional support to water protection, flood prevention and management of waste and packaging waste.
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The PROGEO company was founded in 1993. Since its very beginnings it specializes on the analysis and evaluation of hydrogeological issues using mathemematical models of groundwater flow and transport of dissolved substances. An essential part of the company activities is participation in many research tasks.
