Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period November 03 - November 09, 2023

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.9 - C1.6
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 135-180
Events: class C (2-9/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 90 - 170

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 03 - November 09, 2023

Quiet: Nov 3, 5 - 7
Unsettled: Nov 4 - 5, 7 - 9
Active: Nov 7 - 8
Minor storm: Nov 8 - 9
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

About Saturday, November 4, we expect more unsettled course becuse of previous events.
Because of approaching coronal hole, we expect geomagnetic activity enhance about Wednesday, November 8.
Beside these events, we expect geomagnetic activity at quiet to unsettled level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere November 03 - November 03, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – November 2, 2023

The coronal hole that we could see in the northwest of the solar disk has already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot and flare activities have decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore the frequency of geomagnetic disturbances is lower.

This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and overall slightly better shortwave propagation conditions. After that, however, the solar flux will gradually return from 160 s.f.u. perhaps to somewhere near 120 s.f.u. Therefore MUF values will begin to slowly decline.

As long as the coronal hole will remain stable and persists in the solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances will become more frequent. Therefore shortwave propagation conditions will gradually deteriorate (but no reliable forecast can be made that far ahead).

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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