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Solar activity forecast for the period May 31 - June 06, 2024

Activity level: mostly moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.0 - C6.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 140-220
Events: class C (3-10/day), class M (0-10/period), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 80-260

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 31 - June 06, 2024

Quiet: Jun 4 - 6
Unsettled: June 2 - 4
Active: May 31, June 1
Minor storm: May 31 - June 1
Major storm: unlikely May 31
Severe storm: 0

Currently, geomagnetic field is quiet.
Within the coming three days, we expect active to disturbed conditions because of the last CME with possible storming event starting at the evening at Friday, May 31.
At most unsettled to active conditions are also expectable till Tuesday, June 4.
Since Wednesday, June 5, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV) 

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 31 - June 06, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – May 30, 2024

Over the past seven days, two active regions have returned to the solar disk where large solar flares with CMEs were observed during the last solar revolution. These were regions AR3663 and AR3664, now designated AR3691 and AR3697. The activity of the latter caused a major geomagnetic storm with auroras on 10 May, the largest in decades. Until these large groups of spots reach the center of the solar disk or near the central meridian (i.e., approximately June 6-7), solar activity will increase in a roughly 20-day fluctuation and then decrease again.

Even the last major solar flare on May 29 afternoon UT was observed in AR3697 and was accompanied by a CME. Part of the particle cloud will probably hit Earth sometime between late afternoon on June 1 and the morning of June 2. The onset of the phenomenon should be accompanied by an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions and a deterioration can be expected during its continuation ( June 2).

In the following days, due to increasing solar activity and a calmer state of the Earth's magnetosphere, shortwave propagation conditions should improve again. However, if another large solar flare occurs, the development could be much more dramatic. Another reason for the current instability of shortwave propagation conditions is the rise in summer sporadic E layer activity in the northern hemisphere.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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