Issued: 2024 October 04 17:00 UTC


Analysis from October 03/1700 UTC to October 04/1700 UTC:

Sunspot Regions on the Disk 04/1423 UTC (SDO Continuum): 14
The Largest Event: M6.7 from region 3843 at 03/2028 UT
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A) October 03: C9.4
Radio Flux 10.7 cm at 03/2300 UTC (Penticton): 312
Solar Wind Speed at 04/1645 UTC: 384.5 km/s, density : 0.3 p/cm^3


Forecast:

Activity level will be: high - explanation
Event probabilities: Class C: 99%, Class M: 80%, Class X: 45%, Proton: 40%
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C5.0-C9.0
Radio Flux 10.7 cm: a fluctuation in the range 300-300

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz