Externí odkazy

Causal inference and interactions between Arctic sea ice and Eurasian winter climate

GF21-14727K [Registrované výsledky] 2023 - 2024

Discerning the cause from effect is the aim of many scientific disciplines. In this project we will further develop different methods for detection of causality from experimental time series and applied them to discover the causes of variability of Eurasian winter air temperature, with special attention to its extreme values. The causality methods will be based on information theory, dynamical system theory and compression complexity, combining methods from mathematics, statistical physics and computer science. Among the potential causes of Eurasian winter climate variability we will investigate the changing Arctic sea ice content as well as large-scale modes of circulation variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The expected results will help to understand the causes of Eurasian winter air temperature variability and its extremes and serve as basis for their forecasting.