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Potential replacement vegetation modelling for nature conservation (NaPoVeg)

SS07020042 [Registered results] 2024 - 2026

The proposed project takes a new approach to vegetation modelling, which will allow for different scenarios of landscape change impacts on vegetation and species diversity. This will help to promote an environmentally (biodiversity) but economically sustainable use of resources.

Different variants of the maps of potential replacement vegetation (PNaV) are an ideal basis for designing a landscape-scale nature conservation strategy, i.e. for creating strategic and conceptual documents for specific areas. It will enable support for the Natura 2000 network of protected areas, as the model output will be the potential expansion of habitats directly convertible to Annex 1 habitats of the Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC.

At the same time, it is an ideal basis for fulfilling future obligations under the so-called "Nature restoration law". For example, it will allow harmonisation of requirements for the protection or restoration of a particular habitat and the maintenance of heterogeneity in the landscape. On the other hand, the resulting spatially explicit data will be detailed enough to be useful for site-specific conservation planning (e.g. protected area management plans). In this way, the project fulfils the objectives of the FP7 call for tenders, its sub-programme 2 and specifically priority research objective 3.1. PNaV provides an alternative to potential natural vegetation, and the inclusion of both alternatives makes it possible to assess (model) the impact of no-interference/interference on landscape form and diversity at the landscape scale, not only in a general overview, but concerning specific sites.

The map outputs for the four model areas will be of immediate use, but our project will be a significant contribution in terms of the application of modern statistical methods in vegetation modelling and the first practical application of the PNaV concept at the landscape scale.

Project Aims

  1. Construction of probabilistic spatially explicit models of potential replacement vegetation using up-to-date statistical methods.
  2. Construction of different variants of potential replacement vegetation maps and reconstrution maps of near past.
  3. Analysis of mosaic vegetation dynamics since 1950.
  4. Construction of various species distribution models based on the variants of potential replacement vegetation maps.
  5. Calculation of landscape metrics based on potential replacement vegetation variants and vantification of differences.

This project is funded under the National Recovery Plan from the European Recovery and Resilience Instrument.

This project is funded with state support from the Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic within the Environment for Life Program.