Projekt: Heat waves in a changing climate: statistical and dynamical perspective

The project aims are (i) to analyze recent trends and long-term variability of heat waves in Argentina in relation to changes in atmospheric circulation, (ii) to evaluate climate models as to their ability to reproduce links between atmospheric circulation and surface air temperature, with focus on extremes, (iii) to estimate recurrence probabilities of recent severe heat waves by stochastic simulations, and (iv) to evaluate climate models with respect to their simulation of heat waves in recent climate and scenarios for possible future climates, including comparison with scenarios of heat waves based on the stochastic model. The project results will advance current understanding on heat waves and their possible changes under climate change, and will help establish a network of experts in Argentina and the Czech Republic. The project results will be presented at international conferences and prepared for publication in high-quality international journals.



Founded by: MŠMT 7AMB12AR005

Duration: 2012-2013

Investigator: Kyselý, J.