Institute for Democracy and Economic Analysis

July 12, 2016, Author: Jan Švejnar

Britain:

Political crisis – the Conservatives have to deal with the discontent of the anti-Brexit public (demand for a new referendum) and at the same time negotiate the exit – they would like to do it slowly after selectin new leadership, but they are pushed by many in the EU 27 to do it fast; British public administration will be overwhelmed for months and even years with these negotiations; the Europeans will want the UK out fast and on tough terms, which is not conducive to a favorable negotiated outcome for the UK; The Scotts and Northern Irish may want to be in the EU and hence organize a referendum of their own. All this will be a source of major uncertainty if not a government crisis.