Political

The floods became the most significant event of early 2003, followed by the developments connected with the end of the presidential mandate of Václav Havel. The third position was taken by the planned attack of the USA and Great Britain on Iraq, the NATO Summit in Prague and the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union. These developments were closely followed by the election. The importance of foreign political events grew in January, despite the fact that the planned attack on Iraq was the only development to make it to the ‘big’ foreign and political events with a minimum of 5% reflection.

According to the Czech public, in the current situation it is necessary to maintain stability, peace and not to proceed without the approval of other countries on the Security Council. Only 24% of CZ citizens support a military attack on Iraq, which has been the lowest registered degree of consent since the start of US efforts to continue the fight against terrorism in this way. Two thirds of respondents are against the attack.

At the beginning of January, decisions of the population in the referendum on the entry of the country to the European Union and their opinions on the implemented pre-accession talks were surveyed in these three countries. The intention to participate in the referendum about accession to the European Union was stated by 79 % of the Czech population, but only 42 % of those asked firmly decided to participate.

The results of the survey show that none of the current pretenders to the post of the president enjoys prevailing support of the public. In case of all the monitored candidates, whom the respondents considered for the post of the president individually, the number of adversaries was always higher than the number of supporters. The relatively highest preferences of all the considered persons were achieved by Otakar Motejl and Petr Pithart (both 43 %), followed by Václav Klaus (35 %), Miloš Zeman (29 %), Jaroslav Bureš (25 %), Jaroslava Moserová (16 %) and Miroslav Kříženecký (12 %).

All respondents having the right to vote were traditionally asked an open question (i.e. without a list of political parties being used) investigating which party they would vote for if an election to the Chamber of Deputies took place the following week. The structure of the answers given is summarised in the table.

The question ‘Imagine that an election to the Chamber of Deputies is held next week.

The Public Opinion Research Centre was investigating the decision-making of the electorate throughout the ‘super election’ year 2002. With the benefit of hindsight, we would like to compare how voters made their decisions prior to the June election to the Chamber of Deputies and the autumn elections to the Senate and municipalities. At which stage of the election campaigns did voters decide whom to vote for? Do they decide in the last minute or do they know well in advance whom to support? In the event of elections to the Senate and municipalities, decisions on who will get my vote are made significantly later than in elections to the Chamber of Deputies.

In December survey the CVVM SOÚ AV ČR focused (among other issues) also – in connection with the upcoming end of Václav Havel’s constitutional mandate – on the evaluation of the president’s work according to six selected criteria. The number of positive opinions in the case of the president strongly prevailed, in particular in such attributes, where the interviewees evaluated his performance of constitutional functions, maintaining the authority and respectability of the presidential office and above all presentation in abroad.

In late November and early December, 40% of those polled said they were satisfied with the current political situation in the Czech Republic (‘very satisfied’ – 2.4%, ‘quite satisfied’ – 37.5%), whereas 56% were dissatisfied (‘quite dissatisfied’ – 44.6% and ‘very dissatisfied’ – 11.8%) and 4% did not know. The satisfaction with the political situation has been gradually growing since March 2002, and has reached 40% for the first time since 1996.

At the beginning of next year, it will have been 10 years since Czechoslovakia split into the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic. In its regular survey ‘Our society 2002’, the Public Opinion Research Centre investigated how this historic move is nowadays viewed. Ten years ago, only a small proportion of citizens (22%) agreed with the move, while the majority (60%) say they were opposed to the break-up and 18% do not remember.

The NATO Summit in Prague became the most significant event in late November and early December, with the election ranking second. These events followed: 2002 floods, end of the presidential mandate of Václav Havel and the planned attack of the USA and Great Britain on Iraq. The accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union topped the limit of monitoring again. We can anticipate that the importance of this event will continue to grow as the referendum on the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union and the accession date are nearing.