Project: Probabilistic climate scenarios for the Czech Republic

Main aim: development of probabilistic climate scenario generator, which will combine scenarios derived by various methods from the most recent GCM simulations. Pattern scaling method will be used to derive changes in surface climatic characteristics. Time series (daily and monthly) of these characteristics representing changed climate will be produced by statistical downscaling (transfer function being represented by various approaches), and stochastic weather generator modified according to the climate change scenario. Aims: (1) Validation of input GCMs. (2) Construction of scenarios and time series by individual methods and analysis of uncertainties involved. (3) Development of the probabilistic climate scenario generator, which would produce scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios derived from available GCMs with available methods, and disaggregate them into time series. (4) Assessing climate change impacts in terms of advanced clim. characteristics, e.g. hot/cold/dry/wet spells.

Funded by: AV ČR. IAA300420806

Duration: 2008-2011

Investigator: Dubrovský, M.