Political

For the second time since the June election to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic’s Parliament, all respondents having the right to vote were asked a question investigating which party they would vote for if an election to the Chamber of Deputies took place the following week. Compared to the end of September, only one change occurred: the CSSD has lost some of its lead over the ODS.

Compared to the previous election, the turnout in the last election to the Chamber of Deputies declined dramatically (76.3% of eligible voters in 1996; 73.9% in 1998 but only 58.0% in 2002). This election brought two surprises: in addition to the above-mentioned low turnout, the election also resulted in unwelcome significant gains for the KSCM. There is a great resemblance between some parameters of these two developments.

Majority of Czech citizens believe that their own interests are taken into consideration mainly by people from their immediate surroundings, people, whom they know, and also by television, police, newspapers, army and prime minister. In case of courts and trade unions the public’s trust and distrust are roughly on the same level, though with a slight prevalence of the latter. As far as Czech people in general, the president, churches and private companies are concerned, the public is clearly convinced that these subjects are not concerned with the interests of ordinary individuals.

The summer floods became the major recent event reflected at the end of September. These events followed, keeping a considerable distance: the government crisis, elections and the planned attack of the USA and Great Britain on Iraq. As regards domestic political events, the issue of the validity of the Beneš decrees definitely fell in importance; the significance of the elections assessed in late September was on a par with the figures measured in a May survey, three weeks prior to the parliamentary elections.

In late September, 37% of those polled said they were satisfied with the political situation in the Czech Republic (‘very satisfied’ – 2%, ‘quite satisfied’ – 35%), whereas 58% were dissatisfied (‘quite dissatisfied’ – 42% and ‘very dissatisfied’ – 16%) and 5% did not know. Compared to a survey conducted shortly after the election, no major change occurred in respect of satisfaction with the political situation.

75% of respondents that are eligible to vote said they intended to participate in the November local elections, whereas 17% said they were not going to vote in the elections. 37% of citizens are determined about whom to vote for, while 21% admit they may change their mind and 23% have not decided yet whom to support. 57% of those polled trust their mayor, whereas 31% do not.

Throughout the ‘super election’ year 2002, the Public Opinion Research Centre investigated how voters’ decisions developed, with its September survey focusing, inter alia, on the coming Senate election. Almost a half (43%) of those who said they would definitely vote in the Senate election were decided about whom to support. The decision to vote in the Senate election was the most firm among those who would support the ODS and the KSCM in a potential election to the Chamber of Deputies.

The president is trusted by 45% and distrusted by 52% of citizens. The level of confidence in the president has dropped by 9 % points compared to July. The new government of Vladimír Špidla enjoys confidence of 48% and is not trusted by 46% of the respondents. The new Chamber of Deputies enjoys confidence of 32% (5% points more than the previous Chamber of Deputies) and is not trusted by 62% of the respondents.

Stanislav Gross still remains at the top of the chart (he enjoys confidence of 72% of the respondents), followed by ministers Tvrdík (59%) and prime minister Špidla (56%). Despite a significant drop, Petra Buzková is still favoured by slightly more than a half of the respondents (51%). In comparison with the results from April 2002 there has been a significant growth of public confidence in minister Tvrdík (+10% points) and prime minister Špidla (+7).

For the first time since the June election to the Chamber of Deputies, all respondents having the right to vote were asked an open question (i.e. without a list of political parties being used) investigating which party they would vote for if an election to the Chamber of Deputies took place the following week. The structure of the answers given is summarised in the table. The question ‘Imagine that an election to the Chamber of Deputies is held next week.