Project: Very short range precipitation and hydrological forecast focused on flash flood prediction

Heavy rainfalls and local flash floods cause material damages and casualties throughout the world. Although significant attention has been devoted to developing precipitation and hydrological nowcasting methods and prediction systems the problem is far from being solved. A rainfall/hydrologic prediction system has been partly developed for the Czech Republic (CR) during the previous project between the Czech and U.S. partners, concentrating on 1-3 hour forecasts. The aim of this project is the development of an automated short-range prediction system for the 1-6 hour timeframe, which is particularly important for river prediction in heavy rainfall situations. This time interval also represents a particular challenge in optimizing the relative contributions of numerical model precipitation forecasts and real-time remote-sensor precipitation estimates from radar and satellites. The system will be built on advective-statistical forecasting principles, which have been tested and implemented.

Funded by: MŠMT. ME09033

Duration: 2009-2012

Investigator: Sokol, Z.

Tým: Pešice P.