Interactions, information transfer and complex structures in the dynamics of changing climate

Czech name: Interakce, přenos informace a složité struktury v dynamice měnícího se klimatu
The main focus of this project is the analysis of climatic data with main focus on its linearity/nonlinearity properties, local and large-scale structure.

Abstract

Methods of complex networks and graph theory, tools from information theory and synchronization of nonlinear systems will be used in development of mathematical methods and computer algorithms for analysis of high-dimensional, nonlinear time series. Spectral and Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain approaches will be used for identification of hierarchical structures and clusters in climate networks constructed from spatio-temporal fields of meteorological variables. Information flows among important clusters will be quantified using information-theoretic functionals. Structures, clusters and information flows in network representation will be confronted with known modes of climate variability and with teleconnection patterns – global communication in the Earth atmosphere. Stability of the climate system and its sensitivity to external influences (greenhouse gases, solar and geomagnetic activity) will be evaluated within the complex network paradigm. New theoretical and computational approach will help to understand natural influences and anthropogenic forcing of global change.

Within the project, Institute of Computer Science collaborates with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The project is supported by Czech Science Foundation project No. P103/11/J068.

Publications

Articles

M. Paluš, D. Hartman, J. Hlinka and M. Vejmelka: Discerning connectivity from dynamics in climate networks, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, pp. 751-763, 2011.
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman and M. Paluš: Small-world topology of functional connectivity in randomly connected dynamical systems. Chaos 22(3), 033107, 2012 [preprint]
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, M. Vejmelka, D. Novotná and M. Paluš: Non-linear dependence and teleconnections in climate data: source. Climate Dynamics, 42:7-8, 1873-1886, 2014. [preprint]
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, M. Vejmelka, J. Runge, N. Marwan, J. Kurths and M. Paluš: Reliability of inference of directed climate networks using conditional mutual information. Entropy 15(6), 2023-2045, 2013. .
M. Paluš: Multiscale atmospheric dynamics: Cross-frequency phase--amplitude coupling in the air temperature. Phys. Rev. Lett., in press. [preprint]
J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, N. Jajcay, M. Vejmelka, R. Donner, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, M. Paluš: Regional and inter–regional effects in evolving climate network. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 451-462, 2014.

Preprints and manuscripts

M. Vejmelka, L. Pokorná, J. Hlinka, D. Hartman, N. Jajcay, M. Paluš. Non-random correlation structures and dimensionality reduction in multivariate climate data. Sumitted.
Paluš, M. Linked by dynamics. Submitted.

Posters

Investigation of rotated PCA from the perspective of network communities applied to climate data, Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April, 2013.
Small-world bias of correlation matrix in natural complex systems, Poster presentation at European Conference on Complex Systems, Barcelona, Spain, 16-20 September 2013.
Inference of directed climate networks: role of instability of causality estimation methods, Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April, 2013.
Spatiotemporal modes of climatic variability: building blocks of complex networks?, Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 22–27 April 2012.
Phase coherence between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability from stratosphere to troposphere and North Atlantic Oscillation, Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria, 22–27 April 2012.
Connectivity, Topology and Dynamicsin Climate Networks, Poster presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria, 22–27 April 2012.
The effect of nonlinearity in computing graph theoretic characteristics of complex networks, Poster presentation at European Conference on Complex Systems, Vienna, Austria, 12-16 September 2011.
Inferring coupling structure from dynamics in complex systems: consequences for graph-theoretical analysis, Poster presentation at European Conference on Complex Systems, Vienna, Austria, 12-16 September 2011.
Relation of structure and dynamics in complex systems: consequences for graph-theoretical analysis, Poster presentation at XXXI Dynamics Days Europe, Oldenburg, Germany, 12 - 16 September 2011.
Sensitivity of centrality measures to estimation of adjacency structure: a study of mutual information estimators, Poster presentation at XXXI Dynamics Days Europe, Oldenburg, Germany, 12 - 16 September 2011.
Discerning Connectivity from Dynamics in Climate Networks, Poster presentation at Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, Santa Fe, NM, 30 October - 4 November 2011.

Presentations

Coupling within and across multiple scales of climate dynamics, Invited talk in minisymposium Complex Networks in Climate Dynamics. XXXIII Dynamics Days Europe, Madrid, Spain, 3-7 June 2013.
Interactions and Information Flow in Multiscale Systems, invited talk at Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems, Summer 2013 Workshop, Burlington, VT, USA, 18-19 July 2013
Challenges in directed network analysis documented in climate reanalysis surface air temperature data. Oral presentation at Dynamics Days Belin-Brandenburg, Berlin, Germany, 1-2 October 2013.
Non-linear contributions to interactions in climate networks: sources, relevance, nonstationarity,Oral presentation at European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria, 22–27 April 2012.
Correlation Matrices In Randomly Connected Dynamical Systems Show Small-World-Like Properties, Oral presentation at European Conference on Complex Systems, Vienna, Austria, 12-16 September 2012.
Advantages of (non)linear methods in assessing climate interaction structure, Oral presentation at Data analysis and modeling in Earth sciences, Potsdam, 8–10 October 2012.
Cross-frequency interactions in air temperature records, Oral presentation at Data analysis and modeling in Earth sciences, Potsdam, 8–10 October 2012.
From simple measures of dependence to complex network topologies, Oral presentation at XXXII Dynamics Days Europe, Gothenburg, 2–7 September 2012.
From simple measures of dependence to complex network topologies IIComplex networks of interacting stochastic dynamical systems: Discerning connectivity from dynamics, Oral presentation at conference Fluctuations and Coherence: from Superfluids to Living Systems, Lancaster, 13 - 16 July 2011
Complex networks of interacting stochastic dynamical systems II: Discerning connectivity from dynamics, Oral presentation at XXXI Dynamics Days Europe, Oldenburg, Germany, 12 - 16 September 2011.