Sociologický časopis / Czech Sociological Review 2020, 56(3): 291-313 | DOI: 10.13060/csr.2020.019

The Electoral Success of the Extreme Right: Is the Presence of a Minority Important?

Miloslav Bahna, Jozef Zagrapan
Institute for Sociology, Slovak Academy of Sciences

Anti-minority rhetoric as an almost universal feature of extremeright parties is often analytically and empirically linked to their electoral success. This article tests the link between the presence of an outgroup and the vote for the extreme right in an attempt to explain the electoral success of the first openly anti-system extreme-right party to enter the Slovak parliament in 2016. A multilevel approach is used to analyse the connection between Roma presence in a municipality and extreme-right support while controlling for the individual characteristics of voters. Analysis using exit-poll data covering 161 municipalities and 20 128 voters reveals no relationship between the presence of Roma in a municipality and support for the extreme right. A partial exception seems to be observed for older voters and the university-educated, who are generally the least inclined to far-right support. Interaction effects suggest that, for these groups, Roma presence might be connected to a higher probability to cast a vote for the extreme right. However, a notably higher chance of voting for the extreme right was associated with young, male, manual labourers and people without university education.

Keywords: extreme-right, Slovakia, election, Roma, group-threat

Published: August 25, 2020Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Bahna, M., & Zagrapan, J. (2020). The Electoral Success of the Extreme Right: Is the Presence of a Minority Important? Sociologický časopis / Czech Sociological Review56(3), 291-313. doi: 10.13060/csr.2020.019.
Download citation

References

  1. Amengay, A. and D. Stockemer. 2018. 'The Radical Right in Western Europe: A Meta- Analysis of Structural Factors.' Political Studies Review 17 (1): 30-40, https://doi.org/10.1177/1478929918777975. Go to original source...
  2. Appadurai, A. 2006. Fear of Small Numbers: An Essay on the Geography of Anger. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, https://doi.org/10.1215/9780822387541. Go to original source...
  3. Arzheimer, K. and E. Carter. 2006. 'Political Opportunity Structures and Right-Wing Extremist Party Success.' European Journal of Political Research 45 (3): 419-443, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00304.x. Go to original source...
  4. Blalock, H. 1967. Towards a Theory of Minority Group Relations. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
  5. Bloom, S. 2013. 'Minority Group Size, Unemployment, and the Extreme Right Vote: The Crucial Case of Latvia.' Social Science Quarterly 94 (3): 795-810, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00877.x. Go to original source...
  6. Blumer, H. 1958. 'Race Prejudice as a Sense of Group Position.' Pacific Sociological Review 1: 3-7, https://doi.org/10.2307/1388607. Go to original source...
  7. Bowyer, B. 2008. 'Local Context and Extreme Right Support in England: The British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 Local Elections.' Electoral Studies 27 (4): 611-620, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.05.001. Go to original source...
  8. Branton, R., E. C. Cassese, B. S. Jones and C. Westerland. 2011. 'All Along the Watchtower: Acculturation Fear, Anti-Latino Affect, and Immigration.' The Journal of Politics 73 (3): 664-679, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000375. Go to original source...
  9. Cutts, D. and M. J. Goodwin. 2014. 'Getting Out the Right-Wing Extremist Vote: Extreme Right Party Support and Campaign Effects at a Recent British General Election.' European Political Science Review 6: 93-114, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773912000288. Go to original source...
  10. Džambazovič, R. 2015. 'Názory verejnosti na korupciu: Je na Slovensku korupčná klíma?' (Public opinion on corruption: is there an environment of corruption in Slovakia?) Pp. 422-459 in Korupcia, edited by P. Šoltés and L. Vörös. Bratislava: Historický ústav SAV: Veda.
  11. Ellinas, A. A. 2015. 'Neo-Nazism in an Established Democracy: The Persistence of Golden Dawn in Greece.' South European Society and Politics 20 (1): 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2014.981379. Go to original source...
  12. EVS. 2011. 'European Values Study 1981-2008, Longitudinal Data File'. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne, ZA4804 Data File Version 2.0.0.
  13. Fontana, M.-C., A. Sidler and S. Hardmeier. 2006. 'The New Right Vote: An Analysis of the Gender Gap in the Vote Choice for the SVP.' Swiss Political Science Review 12 (4): 243-271, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1662-6370.2006.tb00067.x. Go to original source...
  14. Fontanella, L., P. Villano and M. Di Donato. 2015. 'Attitudes towards Roma People and Migrants: A Comparison through a Bayesian Multidimensional IRT Model.' Quality & Quantity 50 (2): 471-490, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-014-0158-9. Go to original source...
  15. Golder, M. 2003. 'Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe.' Comparative Political Studies 36 (4): 432-466, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414003251176. Go to original source...
  16. Gregor, K. 2015. 'Who Are Kotleba's Voters? Voters' Transitions in the Banská Bystrica Region in 2009-2014.' Sociológia 47 (3): 235-252.
  17. Han, K. J. 2016. 'Income Inequality and Voting for Radical Right-Wing Parties.' Electoral Studies 42: 54-64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.02.001. Go to original source...
  18. Halla, M., A. Wagner and J. Zweimüller. 2017. 'Immigration and Voting for the Far Right.' Journal of the European Economic Association 000: 1-45, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx003. Go to original source...
  19. Ivarsflaten, E. 2005. 'The Vulnerable Populist Right Parties: No Economic Realignment Fuelling Their Electoral Success.' European Journal of Political Research 44 (3): 465-492, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00235.x. Go to original source...
  20. Jolly, S. K. and G. M. DiGiusto. 2014. 'Xenophobia and Immigrant Contact: French Public Attitudes Toward Immigration.' The Social Science Journal 51 (3): 464-473, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2013.09.018. Go to original source...
  21. Kitschelt, H. and A. McGann. 1997. The Radical Right in Western Europe. A Comparative Analysis. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.14501. Go to original source...
  22. Kluknavská, A. and J. Smolík. 2016. 'We Hate Them All? Issue Adaptation of Extreme Right Parties in Slovakia 1993 and 2016.' Communist and Post-Communist Studies 49 (4): 335-344, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2016.09.002. Go to original source...
  23. ĽSNS. 2016. NAŠE SLOVENSKO-noviny politickej strany Mariana Kotlebu (OUR SLOVAKIA-newspaper of Marian's Kotleba political party) Manifesto. Retrieved 29 October 2019 http://www.naseslovensko.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nase-slovensko-februar-2016.pdf.
  24. Lubbers, M., M. Gijsberts and P. Scheepers. 2002. 'Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe.' European Journal of Political Research 41 (3): 345-378, https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00015. Go to original source...
  25. Lubbers, M., P. Scheepers, and J. Billiet. 2000. 'Multilevel Modelling of Vlaams Blok Voting: Individual and Contextual Characteristics of the Vlaams Blok Vote.' Acta Politica 35 (4): 363-398.
  26. Lucassen, G. and M. Lubbers. 2012. 'Who Fears What? Explaining Far-Right Wing Preference in Europe by Distinguishing Perceived Cultural and Economic Ethnic Threats.' Comparative Political Studies 45 (5): 547-574, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414011427851. Go to original source...
  27. Mareš, M. and V. Havlík. 2016. 'Jobbik's Successes. An Analysis of Its Success in the Comparative Context of the V4 Countries.' Communist and Post-communist Studies 49 (4): 323-333, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2016.08.003. Go to original source...
  28. Matlovičová, K., R. Matlovič, A. Mušinka and A. Židová. 2012. 'The Roma Population in Slovakia. Basic Characteristics of the Roma Population with Emphasis on the Spatial Aspects of Its Differentiation.' Pp. 77-104 in Roma Population on the Peripheries of the Visegrad Countries. Spatial Trends and Social Challenges, edited by J. Penczes and Z. Radics. Debrecen: Didakt.
  29. Mikuš, R. and D. Gurňák. 2012. 'Vývoj pozícií politického extrémizmu, radikalizmu a nacionalizmu v rôznych úrovniach volieb na Slovensku.' (Development of the position of political extremism, radicalism, and nationalism in different stages of the elections in Slovakia) Geografické informácie/Geographical Information 16 (2): 38-49, https://doi.org/10.17846/GI.2012.16.2.38-49. Go to original source...
  30. Mikuš, R., D. Gurňák and A. Máriássyová. 2016. 'Analýza volebnej podpory Mariána Kotlebu ako reprezentanta krajnej pravice v krajských voľbách 2013.' (An analysis of voter support for Marián Kotleba as the representative of the far-right in the regional elections of 2013) Sociológia 48 (1): 48-70.
  31. Mudde, C. 2004. 'The Populist Zeitgeist.' Government and Opposition 39 (4): 541-463, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x. Go to original source...
  32. Mudde, C. 2007. The Populist Radical Right in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492037. Go to original source...
  33. Mušinka, A., D. Škobla, K. Matlovičová and J. Kling. 2014. Atlas rómskych komunít na Slovensku 2013 . (Atlas of Roma communities in Slovakia 2013) Bratislava: UNDP.
  34. Oesch, D. 2008. 'Explaining Workers' Support for Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe: Evidence from Austria, Belgium, France, Norway, and Switzerland.' International Political Science Review 29 (3): 349-373, https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512107088390. Go to original source...
  35. Pettigrew, T. F. 1998. 'Intergroup Contact Theory.' Annual Review of Psychology 49: 65-85, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.49.1.65. Go to original source...
  36. Quillian, L. 1995. 'Prejudice as a Response to Perceived Group Threat.' American Sociological Review 60: 586-611, https://doi.org/10.2307/2096296. Go to original source...
  37. Rink, N., K. Phalet and M. Swyngedouw. 2009. 'The Effects of Immigrant Population Size, Unemployment, and Individual Characteristics on Voting for the Vlaams Blok in Flanders 1991-1999.' European Sociological Review 25 (4): 411-424, https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcn028. Go to original source...
  38. Rooduijn, M. 2017. 'What Unites the Voter Bases of Populist Parties? Comparing the Electorates of 15 Populist Parties.' European Political Science Review 10 (3): 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773917000145. Go to original source...
  39. Schatz, K T., E. Staub and H. Lavine. 1999. 'On the Varieties of National Attachment: Blind Versus Constructive Patriotism.' Political Psychology 20 (1): 151-174, https://doi.org/10.1111/0162-895X.00140. Go to original source...
  40. Scheepers, P., M. Gijsberts and M. Coenders. 2002. 'Ethnic Exclusion in European Countries. Public Opposition to Civil Rights for Legal Migrants as a Response to Perceived Threat.' European Sociological Review 18: 17-34, https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/18.1.17. Go to original source...
  41. Spáč, P. and P. Voda. 2014. 'Slovak Extreme Right and Its Support Based on Local Roma Incidence.' Paper presented at the ECPR General Conference, Glasgow, September 3-6.
  42. Spáč, P. and P. Voda. 2015. 'Just a Roma Issue? The Support for Marian Kotleba in 2013 Regional Elections.' Pp. 88-100 in Mechanism of Voter Mobilisation of ĽSNS and Marián Kotleba, edited by K. Gregor, J. Medzihorský, P. Spáč, M. Škop and P. Voda. Bratislava: Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs.
  43. Taggart, P. 2000. Populism . Buckingham: Open University Press.
  44. Van der Brug, W., M. Fennema and J. Tillie. 2000. 'Anti-Immigrant Parties in Europe: Ideological or Protest Vote?' European Journal of Political Research 37 (1): 77-102, https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00505. Go to original source...
  45. Westinen, J. 2014. 'True Finns: A Shock for Stability? Testing the Persistence of Electoral Geography in Volatile Elections.' Scandinavian Political Studies 37 (2): 123-148, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9477.12017. Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.