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Application of a Multi‐Layer Artificial Neural Network in a 3‐D Global Electron Density Model Using the Long‐Term Observations of COSMIC, Fengyun‐3C, and Digisonde

  •  10 March 2021

Key Points

  • An artificial neural network‐based electron density model is developed using the observations obtained from COSMIC, FY‐3C, and Digisondes

  • ANN‐TDD has a strong predicting capability in high‐low solar activities and quiet‐disturbed space conditions compared with ISR and IRI‐2016

  • ANN‐TDD model successes to reproduce ionospheric seasonal variations and spatial prominent patterns well including the EIA, WSA, and MSNA

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A Deep Learning Model for the Thermospheric Nitric Oxide Emission

  •  10 March 2021

Key Points

  • The convolutional neural network (CNN) with a context loss function can well capture the variations in the incomplete images of the observed nitric oxide (NO) emission

  • The CNN‐based NO emission model performs better in reproducing the observed 3‐D distribution of NO emission than the theoretical model does

  • The CNN‐based NO emission model captures the main features of NO emission that changes dramatically during disturbed periods

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On the Construction of Phenomenological Coronal Mass Ejection Models

  •  10 March 2021

Key Points

  • The magnetohydrodynamical equations lead to a number of conservation laws

  • These conservation laws should be taken into account when developing phenomenological coronal mass ejection models

  • The account for conservation laws is extremely simple in Lagrange coordinates. There are no reasons not to conform them

Open access

Ionospheric Disturbances Over the Indian Sector During 8 September 2017 Geomagnetic Storm: Plasma Structuring and Propagation

  •  23 February 2021

Key Points

  • In the post‐sunset hours, the plasma restructuring results into independent equatorial plasma bubbles

  • The migrating structure assumed a wave‐like pattern possibly related to large‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances moving with a velocity of about 650 m/s

  • The method used to derive prompt penetrating electric fields from the overall ionospheric disturbance is able to discriminate between prompt and delayed disturbance

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Issue Information

  •  22 February 2021
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Issue Information

  •  17 February 2021
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Nighttime Magnetic Perturbation Events Observed in Arctic Canada: 3. Occurrence and Amplitude as Functions of Magnetic Latitude, Local Time, and Magnetic Disturbance Indices

  •  11 February 2021

Key Points

  • We present 2 years of observations of ≥6 nT/s magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) from five high‐latitude Arctic stations

  • Most MPEs occurred within 30 min of a substorm onset, but substorms were neither necessary nor sufficient to cause MPEs

  • Pre‐ and postmidnight MPEs had different temporal relations to substorms and occurred at slightly different latitudes

Open access

Multilayered Sporadic‐E Response to the Annular Solar Eclipse on June 21, 2020

  •  11 February 2021

Key Points

  • The unexpected multilayered Es is observed by the ionosonde over Nanning (southern 81.1% obscuration) after the maximum obscuration

  • The occurrence of small‐scale AGWs due to the eclipse should result in the multilayered Es at altitudes from 130 to 190 km

  • The Es layer uplifts significantly over Xiamen (97.8% obscuration) near the maximum obscuration

Open access

Validation of the SMOS Mission for Space Weather Operations: The Potential of Near Real‐Time Solar Observation at 1.4 GHz

  •  8 February 2021

Key Points

  • Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Sun brightness temperature detects solar radio bursts from flares associated with CMEs from the visible hemisphere of the Sun

  • The flux released by 1.4 GHz solar radio bursts correlates with the speed, angular width and kinetic energy of CMEs

  • SMOS Sun brightness temperature can detect the progression of the 11‐year solar activity cycle

Open access

Why are ELEvoHI CME Arrival Predictions Different if Based on STEREO‐A or STEREO‐B Heliospheric Imager Observations?

  •  8 February 2021

Key Points

  • A comparison of CME arrival time and speed predictions from two vantage points was carried out using ELEvoHI

  • A highly structured ambient solar wind flow leads to larger arrival time differences between STA and STB predictions

  • The assumption of a rigid CME front in ELEvoHI and other HI‐based methods is most probably too simplistic

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ASHLEY: A new empirical model for the high‐latitude electron precipitation and electric field

  •  3 April 2021

Key Points

  • ASHLEY better considers the consistency between the electric field and electron precipitation than existing models.

  • ASHLEY better incorporates IMF By polarity impacts on the electron precipitation and improves soft electron precipitation specifications.

  • ASHLEY provides consistent mean electric field and electric field variability.

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Occurrence of Ionospheric Equatorial Ionization Anomaly at 840 km height observed by the DMSP satellites at solar maximum dusk

  •  3 April 2021

Key Points

  • The occurrence rate of equatorial ionization anomaly at 840 km altitude can reach ∼30% just after sunset during solar maximum.

  • The occurrence rates of equatorial ionization anomaly and irregularity are correlated, the latter peaks at later local time than the former.

  • The pre‐reversal enhancement of eastward electric field plays a significant role in the formation of equatorial ionization anomaly.

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A Nonlinear System Science Approach to Find the Robust Solar Wind Drivers of the Multivariate Magnetosphere

  •  2 April 2021

Key Points

  • The robust interaction between solar wind and geomagnetic indices (DST, AU and AL)are studied using Neural Networks for hour resolution.

  • The robustness of the solar wind inputs that drive geomagnetic indices is evaluated byperturbing them on the trained Neural Networks.

  • Model built with only 6 robust variables is 12.7% better than "bigger" models constructedwith individual solar wind variables and delays.

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The determination of satellite orbital decay from POD data during geomagnetic storms

  •  2 April 2021

Key Points

  • The accuracy of the integration approach in the calculation of time variation gravitational potential is much higher than the analytic one.

  • The integration approach is suitable in the determination of satellite orbital decay and decay rate, especially at solar minimum.

  • Storm‐induced orbital decay can be much larger or comparable to that due to the background atmospheric drag.

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Can Smartphones Detect Geomagnetic Storms?

  •  2 April 2021

Key Points

  • Smartphones are capable of detecting geomagnetic storms based on simulations of historical storms and experiments with a Helmholtz coil.

  • Detectability varies with smartphone model and copy with some having intrinsically higher magnetometer noise than others.

  • Geographically‐distributed smartphones in North America across high and mid‐latitudes would be able to track Kp> 5 events with S/N>3.

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Yield function of the DOSimetry TELescope count and dose rates aboard the International Space Station

  •  1 April 2021

Key Points

  • Energetic Particles

  • Influence of the Earth magnetosphere on the count‐ and dose rate aboard International Space Station (ISS)

  • Yield function

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Daytime equatorial spread F‐like irregularities detected by HF Doppler receiver and Digisonde

  •  1 April 2021

Key Points

  • Analysis of Digisonde, High Frequency Doppler receiver, and Global Navigation Satellite System data was undertaken

  • Use of low‐cost High Frequency Doppler equipment for reliable diagnostic of equatorial ionosphere is demonstrated

  • Daytime equatorial spread F is associated with travelling ionospheric disturbances

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Dynamics of Electron Flux in the Slot Region and Geomagnetic Activity

  •  25 March 2021

Key Points

  • Electron flux in the slot region was analysed based on highly elliptical orbit satellite data for 1998 ‐ 2007

  • Frequency and intensity of slot filling events were determined for different levels of geomagnetic activity

  • Geomagnetic indices better suited for assessment of electron flux in the slot region were identified

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Study of the Impact of past extreme Solar Events on the modern air traffic

  •  25 March 2021

Key Points

  • Simulated impact of the AD 774/775 and AD 993/994 past extreme solar events on modern air traffic

  • Impacts of past events are significantly higher, in the order of 140 and 25 times more than simulations of the GLE 69 and 5 event

  • Importance of flight characteristics and solar event properties in the assessment.

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A Global Empirical Model of Electron Density Profile in the F Region Ionosphere Basing on COSMIC Measurements

  •  24 March 2021

Key Points

  • A global model of Ne profile in F region ionosphere was constructed based on the α‐Chapman function

  • The model gives 3‐D Ne as well as five key parameters of Ne profile, including NmF2, hmF2, Hm and its change rates with height

  • The model reasonably reproduces the equatorial ionization anomaly and midlatitude trough

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International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real‐time weather predictions

Key Points

  • New models for the F2 peak height hmF2 in IRI‐2016
  • Development of the Real‐Time International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)
  • Improved description of IRI ion composition at low and high solar activities

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

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Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

Key Points

  • We provide a broad overview of the status of the GIC field
  • We utilize the Applications Readiness Levels (ARL) concept to quantify the maturity of our GIC‐related modeling and applications
  • This paper is the high‐level report of the NASA Living With a Star GIC Working Group findings

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Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Key Points

  • The median symmetric accuracy and symmetric signed percentage bias are introduced to address some drawbacks of current metrics
  • The spread of a multiplicative linear model can be robustly estimated using the log accuracy ratio
  • The properties of the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias are demonstrated on radiation belt examples

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On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events

Key Points

  • Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12%

  • Space physics datasets often display a power‐law distribution

  • Power‐law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events

Open access

The 6 September 2017 X‐Class Solar Flares and Their Impacts on the Ionosphere, GNSS, and HF Radio Wave Propagation

Key Points

  • We investigated effects of the 6 September 2017 X‐class solar flares on the ionosphere, GNSS‐based navigation, and HF propagation
  • The solar flares had a significant impact on the ionosphere, and the ionospheric effects lasted longer than the enhanced EUV emission
  • The SRB associated with the X9.3 flare did not impact on the GNSS communication, but the X‐ray emission caused blackout in HF propagation

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Generation of 100‐year geomagnetically induced current scenarios

Key Points

  • Extreme GICs are of major current interest

  • Detailed scenarios are needed to assess the risk posed by extreme GIC

  • This study provides a robust geophysical foundation for further engineering analyses

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray‐box paradigm that combines physics‐based and machine learning approaches

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Open access

A 100‐year Geoelectric Hazard Analysis for the U.S. High‐Voltage Power Grid

Key Points

  • Conductivity structure of Earth imparts more than 3 orders of magnitude difference in geoelectric hazards for the United States
  • Estimated geoelectric fields for a once‐per‐century geomagnetic storm are predicted to exceed 1 V/km at 30% of the surveyed land area
  • The geoelectric field amplitude and polarization couple into the power grid to produce almost 1,000 V in some transmission lines

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A cellular automata‐based model of Earth's magnetosphere in relation with Dst index

Key Points

  • Modeling of geomagnetic storm by a sandpile-like cellular automata model
  • Real‐time data of IMF and solar wind are used as the inputs
  • Dynamic statistical properties of model resembles real‐time Dst index series

Open access

The Great Storm of May 1921: An Exemplar of a Dangerous Space Weather Event

Key Points

  • A review of scientific papers, newspapers, and other reports is used to build a timeline of the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921
  • The first part of the storm created conditions that enabled later activity to cause some of the most severe geoelectric fields on record
  • This timeline adds to the knowledge we can use to develop the scenarios needed to plan mitigation of future severe space weather

Plain Language Summary

The severe space weather event of 13‐16 May 1921 produced some spectacular technological impacts, in some cases causing destructive fires. It was characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic variations, and spectacular aurora, recorded at many locations around the world. A wealth of information is available in scientific journals, newspapers, and other sources, enabling us to reconstruct the storm timeline. This shows that a series of major coronal mass ejections (CMEs) bombarded Earth in May 1921. The first pair may have prepared the way for latter intense activity, clearing density from the region between Sun and Earth, and energizing Earth's magnetosphere. Thus, a subsequent CME could travel more quickly and drive even more energy into the already active magnetosphere. This CME arrived late on 14 May, driving very intense activity early on 15 May, and leading to the spectacular technological effects. However, some effects, attributed at the time to space weather, were probably coincidental with the storm, and due to more prosaic faults. The timeline of the 1921 event, including the confusion caused by prosaic faults, can be used to construct scenarios for use today by those emergency managers planning how to reduce the adverse impacts of future space weather events.

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A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro‐Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray‐box paradigm that combines physics‐based and machine learning approaches

Plain Language Summary

In the last decade, machine learning has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications. In particular, the combination of massive data sets and computing with specialized processors (graphics processing units, or GPUs) can perform as well or better than humans in tasks like image classification and game playing. Space weather is a discipline that lives between academia and industry, given the relevant physical effects on satellites and power grids in a variety of applications, and the field therefore stands to benefit from the advances made in industrial applications. Today, machine learning poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the space weather community. The challenge is that the current data science revolution has not been fully embraced, possibly because space physicists remain skeptical of the gains achievable with machine learning. If the community can master the relevant technical skills, they should be able to appreciate what is possible within a few years time and what is possible within a decade. The clearest opportunity lies in creating space weather forecasting models that can respond in real time and that are built on both physics predictions and on observed data.

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Temporal and Spatial Evolutions of a Large Sunspot Group and Great Auroral Storms Around the Carrington Event in 1859

Key Points

  • Original sunspot drawings during the 1859 storms are revealed and analyzed
  • New auroral reports from Eurasia and Oceania fill the spatial and temporal gaps of the auroral visibility during the 1859 storms
  • The 1859 storms are compared and contextualized with the other extreme space weather events

Plain Language Summary

The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history. In this article, we have studied the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source active region and visual low‐latitude aurorae. We have also compared this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of the spatial evolution. We have compared the available sunspot drawings to reconstruct the morphology and evolution of sunspot groups at that time. We have surveyed visual auroral reports in the Russian Empire, Ireland, Iberian Peninsula, Oceania, and Japan and fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revised its time series. We have compared this time series with magnetic measurements and shown the correspondence between low‐latitude to midlatitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. We have compared the spatial evolution of the auroral oval with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity and concluded that the Carrington event is one of the most extreme space weather events but is likely not unique.

Open access

Intensity and Impact of the New York Railroad Superstorm of May 1921

Key Points

  • The magnetic storm of May 1921 attained a maximum −Dst of 907 ± 132 nT
  • Low‐latitude geomagnetic disturbance exhibited extreme local time asymmetry
  • Anecdotal evidence from impacts across New York State underscores importance of recent research on geomagnetically induced currents

Plain Language Summary

Historical records of ground‐level geomagnetic disturbance are analyzed for the magnetic superstorm of May 1921. This storm was almost certainly driven by a series of interplanetary coronal mass ejections of plasma from an active region on the Sun. The May 1921 storm was one of the most intense ever recorded by ground‐level magnetometers. It exhibited violent levels of geomagnetic disturbance, caused widespread interference to telephone and telegraph systems in New York City and State, and brought spectacular aurorae to the nighttime sky. Results inform modern projects for assessing and mitigating the effects of magnetic storms that might occur in the future.

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

Open access

The Persistent Ionospheric Responses Over Japan After the Impact of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

Key Points

  • The Tohoku earthquake/tsunami stimulated unstable plasma structures in the midlatitude nighttime ionosphere
  • Planar TIDs related to reflected tsunami‐excited gravity waves are observed along the coastline direction of Japan
  • Reflected tsunami‐excited gravity wave seeding may contribute to the formation of the ionospheric irregularities and nighttime MSTIDs

Plain Language Summary

On 11 March 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, unleashing a savage tsunami as well as unprecedented plasma ripples at the space‐atmosphere interaction region. Although the earthquake was a transient local event, the tsunami ocean waves backscattered by seafloor topography in the Pacific Ocean continuously excited gravity waves and planar traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) propagating toward Japan for more than 10 hr. Unusual ionospheric band structures referred to the midlatitude nighttime medium‐scale TIDs (MSTIDs) and plasma irregularities developed following the planar TIDs over Japan. It is common to observe the nighttime MSTIDs traveling along the Japan island during the summer; however, they are rarely seen in March. What drove the appearance of MSTIDs and ionospheric irregularities in March was likely the reflected tsunami wave‐induced gravity waves. Such space weather phenomena have an adverse impact on Global Navigation Satellite System navigation and applications. Therefore, understanding how natural hazards impact our upper atmosphere and cause variations in the space environment around Earth is crucial.

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