Volume 126, Issue 5 e2020JA029063
Research Article

Analysis of Relationship Between Ionospheric and Solar Parameters Using Graphical Models

Kateřina Podolská

Corresponding Author

Department of Ionosphere and Aeronomy, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czechia

Correspondence to:

K. Podolská,

kapo@ufa.cas.cz

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Petra Koucká Knížová

Department of Ionosphere and Aeronomy, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czechia

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Jaroslav Chum

Department of Ionosphere and Aeronomy, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czechia

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Michal Kozubek

Department of Ionosphere and Aeronomy, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czechia

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Dalia Burešová

Department of Ionosphere and Aeronomy, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czechia

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First published: 14 April 2021

Abstract

For the investigation of time variations of critical frequency (foF2), solar radiation flux at 10.7 cm wavelength (F10.7 index) and geomagnetic activity index Kp, we use conditional independence graphical models which describe and transparently represent the structure of relationships in the time series. We employ multivariate statistic methods applied to daily observational data obtained from midlatitude ionosondes within the period 1994–2009 (23rd Solar Cycle). It is demonstrated that conditional independence graphical models represent a robust method of multivariate statistical analysis, useful for finding a relation between one of the main ionospheric parameters and space weather conditions. This method appears to be more appropriate than correlation analysis between foF2 and the main geomagnetic and solar indices, especially for long‐term data for which the model characteristics may change or time series can be interrupted. We compare the results obtained by the graphical models method with cross‐correlation analysis. We found that the method is suitable for the analysis of the dependence between foF2 values and time‐shifted F10.7 time series. In particular, we clearly identified +0 day shift in all cases, and +1‐, +2–3‐, and +4–5‐day shifts in European, American, and East Asia sector, respectively. The conditional independence graphs method can be applied even in the case when classical parametric methods are not convenient.

Data Availability Statement

The data used for time series assembling were provided in case of Kp by World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto University, Japan [online] [cit. 2016‐04‐01]. <https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html>, in case of F10.7 by NWRA/CoRA, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, USA [online] [cit. 2016‐04‐01]. <http://www.nwra.com/spawx/spawx.html>, and in case of foF2 and ionosondes information by UK Solar System Data Centre (UKSSDC), Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Oxfordshire, GB [online] [cit. 2016‐05‐02]. <http:/www.ukssdc.ac.uk/wdcc1/ionosondes/secure/iono-data.shtml>. Access is enabled by clicking “cancel” button on the login box.