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Issue Information

  •  26 May 2021
Open access

FTA: A Feature Tracking Empirical Model of Auroral Precipitation

  •  30 April 2021

Key Points

  • The AE-based Feature Tracking of Aurora (FTA) model provides the energy flux and the average energy using 1.5 years of Polar Ultraviolet Imager data

  • The FTA model’s grid is tied to auroral boundaries and spatial distribution: tracking a cumulative energy grid in each magnetic local time sector

  • For the March 17, 2013 event, the FTA model had the most confined patterns and agreed best with Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imagers observations of auroral power

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Modeling the Geomagnetic Response to the September 2017 Space Weather Event Over Fennoscandia Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Studying the Impacts of Spatial Resolution

  •  30 April 2021

Key Points

  • Higher space weather modeling framework (SWMF) spatial resolution increased the variability of virtual ground magnetometer and inter-station differences

  • By increasing the SWMF spatial resolution, the ability to model geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in terms of amplitudes and timing can be improved

  • Regardless of the spatial resolution, substorms remain a problem and are a crucial process to driving GICs

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Using Gradient Boosting Regression to Improve Ambient Solar Wind Model Predictions

  •  24 April 2021

Key Points

  • We present a machine learning approach to use in place of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model for predicting solar wind speed near Earth

  • The tool is validated on one whole solar cycle and outperforms established models and a baseline recurrence model

  • This study presents a fast and well-validated open-source contribution to the field of ambient solar wind modeling and prediction

Open access

Simulation and Analysis of Geomagnetically Induced Current Levels in Shandong Power Grid

  •  20 April 2021

Key Points

  • Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) levels in the Shandong 500 kV power grid system are simulated and analyzed

  • It is shown that GIC levels have high sensitivity to the direction of the geoelectric field

  • By calculating the maximum GIC level for the optimum direction for all substations, we propose a method for identifying the vulnerable substations

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Harmonization of RBSP and Arase Energetic Electron Measurements Utilizing ESA Radiation Monitor Data

  •  20 April 2021

Key Points

  • Cross-calibration analysis between Arase/XEP and RBSP/MagEIS & REPT measurements and validation using two different ESA radiation monitors

  • Harmonization of science-class energetic electron flux measurements define reference data set(s) for the outer Van Allen belt

  • Reference data sets to be used for the harmonization of radiation monitors and the update/validation of climatological and space weather models

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Issue Information

  •  16 April 2021
Open access

Exploring Contingency Skill Scores Based on Event Sizes

  •  16 April 2021

Key Points

  • Skill scores of forecast models use only numbers of events

  • Model validations ignore sizes or impacts of events

  • We present an intensity-based skill score for models

Open access

Upper‐Atmosphere Mass Density Variations From CASSIOPE Precise Orbits

  •  9 April 2021

Key Points

  • Thermospheric mass densities are estimated from CAScade SmallSat and IOnospheric Polar Explorer precise orbits

  • The detailed thermospheric mass density responses are obtained during the February 2014 geomagnetic storm

  • CASSIOPE-derived thermospheric mass density is better than the NRLMSIS-00 model to reflect responses to the storm

Open access

ASHLEY: A New Empirical Model for the High‐Latitude Electron Precipitation and Electric Field

  •  3 April 2021

Key Points

  • ASHLEY better considers the consistency between the electric field and electron precipitation than existing models

  • ASHLEY better incorporates IMF By polarity impacts on the electron precipitation and improves soft electron precipitation specifications

  • ASHLEY provides consistent mean electric field and electric field variability

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Geosynchronous magnetopause crossings and their relationships with magnetic storms and substorms

  •  1 June 2021

Key Points

  • Geosynchronous magnetopause crossings are studied in connection with solar wind drivers and accompanying geomagnetic activity

  • Dst index often reaches a minimum in 3-8 hours after geosynchronous magnetopause crossings

  • Average SML ( SMU) index reach minimum (maximum) in one hour after geosynchronous magnetopause crossings

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Data‐Driven Forecasting of Low‐Latitude Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Using the Random Forest and LSTM Machine Learning Methods

  •  31 May 2021

Key Points

  • Data driven advanced machine learning methods applied to forecast the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) 5 hours ahead

  • The random forest and LSTM methods are employed, the data sources are space measurements characterizing the solar-terrestrial environment

  • Variable importance ranking showed that F10.7, Lyman alpha are top predictors agreeing well with the physics of ionospheric formation

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A Summary of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Proton Event Forecast Performance and Skill

  •  31 May 2021

Key Points

  • For Solar Cycle 24, Space Weather Prediction Center day 1 probabilistic proton forecasts have a Brier Skill Score of 0.25 over persistence.

  • The ≥ 10 MeV proton Warnings have a Probability of Detection of 91% and a False Alarm Ratio 24% with a median lead time of 88 minutes.

  • The ≥ 100 MeV proton Warnings have a Probability of Detection of 53% and a False Alarm Ratio 38% with a median lead time of 10 minutes.

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Solar Wind Speed Prediction with Two‐Dimensional Attention Mechanism

  •  31 May 2021

Key Points

  • The attentional mechanism is combined with the GRU model to predict the solar wind speed at Lagrangian Point 1 between the Sun and Earth.

  • Solar wind speed prediction is performed using OMNI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) data sets.

  • Compared with the comparison model, our TDAM prediction model achieves the best result 24 hours in advance.

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On the Sources and Sizes of Uncertainty in Predicting the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections using Global MHD Models

  •  31 May 2021

Key Points

  • Uncertainties in the arrival time of ICMEs derive from a mixture of individual, but identifiable uncertainties in the chain from the Sun to 1 AU

  • Different ADAPT realizations produce uncertainties in the arrival time of ICMEs of ± 7 hours or more.

  • Targeted studies aimed at reducing each of the uncertainties would improve the accuracy and precision in the arrival time of ICMEs

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Forecasting Occurrence and Intensity of Geomagnetic Activity with Pattern‐Matching Approaches

  •  20 May 2021

Key Points

  • Pattern-matching techniques are an effective way to forecast geomagnetic activity.

  • The analogue ensemble and support vector machine outperform 27-day recurrence and climatology.

  • The best forecast approach for the end user will depend on their need for probabilistic forecast information.

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A Method for Calculating Atmospheric Radiation Produced by Relativistic Electron Precipitation

  •  17 May 2021

Key Points

  • We report a lookup table of atmospheric radiation production between ground and low-Earth-orbit by monoenergetic precipitation electrons

  • We explain how this lookup table can be utilized for rapid specification of radiation production by arbitrary precipitation energy spectrum

  • We validate this lookup table by comparing with balloon measurements of X-ray spectrum in stratosphere during radiation belt precipitation

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Extreme low‐latitude TEC enhancement and GPS Scintillation at dawn

  •  12 May 2021

Key Points

  • Observations show expansion of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) beyond 35° magnetic latitude at a pre-dawn time.

  • Total electron content of the EIA’s northern crest in central America exceeded 50 TECu at sunrise.

  • The EIA was accompanied by equatorial plasma bubbles, causing severe GPS scintillations lasting for five hours around sunrise.

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The Role of Spatial Gradient on Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) Extraction from Geodetic VLBI Observation: Case Study CONT08 to CONT17‐L1

  •  8 May 2021

Key Points

  • The role of spatial gradient is more significant on the equatorial region as compared to other area.

  • Spatial gradients improve accuracy of the VTEC estimates from VLBI observation, especially in periods when the solar activity is high.

  • The role of the spatial gradient in estimating VLBI VTEC is related to the latitude of the VLBI station.

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Toward Accurate Physics‐Based Specifications of Neutral Density using GNSS‐Enabled Small Satellites

  •  8 May 2021

Key Points

  • GNSS-enabled satellites are capable of monitoring the state of the thermosphere at much higher cadences than current operational datasets

  • We present an initial technique to infer neutral densities from orbit determination products of the Spire CubeSat constellation

  • Densities are used to drive a data-assimilative, physics-based model of the thermosphere and ionosphere during 23 Sept.–9 Dec. 2018

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International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real‐time weather predictions

Key Points

  • New models for the F2 peak height hmF2 in IRI-2016
  • Development of the Real-Time International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)
  • Improved description of IRI ion composition at low and high solar activities

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

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Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Key Points

  • The median symmetric accuracy and symmetric signed percentage bias are introduced to address some drawbacks of current metrics
  • The spread of a multiplicative linear model can be robustly estimated using the log accuracy ratio
  • The properties of the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias are demonstrated on radiation belt examples

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Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

Key Points

  • We provide a broad overview of the status of the GIC field
  • We utilize the Applications Readiness Levels (ARL) concept to quantify the maturity of our GIC-related modeling and applications
  • This paper is the high-level report of the NASA Living With a Star GIC Working Group findings

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On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events

Key Points

  • Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12%

  • Space physics datasets often display a power-law distribution

  • Power-law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

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Generation of 100‐year geomagnetically induced current scenarios

Key Points

  • Extreme GICs are of major current interest

  • Detailed scenarios are needed to assess the risk posed by extreme GIC

  • This study provides a robust geophysical foundation for further engineering analyses

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Magnetohydrodynamic simulation of interplanetary propagation of multiple coronal mass ejections with internal magnetic flux rope (SUSANOO‐CME)

Key Points

  • A model to inject multiple CMEs into a 3-D MHD simulation of the inner heliosphere is developed
  • Halloween storms are simulated to test the arrival times and southward Bz of magnetic clouds
  • A complex time profile of the solar wind could be understood by the interaction of CMEs

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A cellular automata‐based model of Earth's magnetosphere in relation with Dst index

Key Points

  • Modeling of geomagnetic storm by a sandpile-like cellular automata model
  • Real-time data of IMF and solar wind are used as the inputs
  • Dynamic statistical properties of model resembles real-time Dst index series

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A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

Open access

The Great Storm of May 1921: An Exemplar of a Dangerous Space Weather Event

Key Points

  • A review of scientific papers, newspapers, and other reports is used to build a timeline of the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921
  • The first part of the storm created conditions that enabled later activity to cause some of the most severe geoelectric fields on record
  • This timeline adds to the knowledge we can use to develop the scenarios needed to plan mitigation of future severe space weather

Plain Language Summary

The severe space weather event of 13-16 May 1921 produced some spectacular technological impacts, in some cases causing destructive fires. It was characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic variations, and spectacular aurora, recorded at many locations around the world. A wealth of information is available in scientific journals, newspapers, and other sources, enabling us to reconstruct the storm timeline. This shows that a series of major coronal mass ejections (CMEs) bombarded Earth in May 1921. The first pair may have prepared the way for latter intense activity, clearing density from the region between Sun and Earth, and energizing Earth's magnetosphere. Thus, a subsequent CME could travel more quickly and drive even more energy into the already active magnetosphere. This CME arrived late on 14 May, driving very intense activity early on 15 May, and leading to the spectacular technological effects. However, some effects, attributed at the time to space weather, were probably coincidental with the storm, and due to more prosaic faults. The timeline of the 1921 event, including the confusion caused by prosaic faults, can be used to construct scenarios for use today by those emergency managers planning how to reduce the adverse impacts of future space weather events.

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

Plain Language Summary

In the last decade, machine learning has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications. In particular, the combination of massive data sets and computing with specialized processors (graphics processing units, or GPUs) can perform as well or better than humans in tasks like image classification and game playing. Space weather is a discipline that lives between academia and industry, given the relevant physical effects on satellites and power grids in a variety of applications, and the field therefore stands to benefit from the advances made in industrial applications. Today, machine learning poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the space weather community. The challenge is that the current data science revolution has not been fully embraced, possibly because space physicists remain skeptical of the gains achievable with machine learning. If the community can master the relevant technical skills, they should be able to appreciate what is possible within a few years time and what is possible within a decade. The clearest opportunity lies in creating space weather forecasting models that can respond in real time and that are built on both physics predictions and on observed data.

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Temporal and Spatial Evolutions of a Large Sunspot Group and Great Auroral Storms Around the Carrington Event in 1859

Key Points

  • Original sunspot drawings during the 1859 storms are revealed and analyzed
  • New auroral reports from Eurasia and Oceania fill the spatial and temporal gaps of the auroral visibility during the 1859 storms
  • The 1859 storms are compared and contextualized with the other extreme space weather events

Plain Language Summary

The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history. In this article, we have studied the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source active region and visual low-latitude aurorae. We have also compared this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of the spatial evolution. We have compared the available sunspot drawings to reconstruct the morphology and evolution of sunspot groups at that time. We have surveyed visual auroral reports in the Russian Empire, Ireland, Iberian Peninsula, Oceania, and Japan and fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revised its time series. We have compared this time series with magnetic measurements and shown the correspondence between low-latitude to midlatitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. We have compared the spatial evolution of the auroral oval with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity and concluded that the Carrington event is one of the most extreme space weather events but is likely not unique.

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

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On the Little‐Known Consequences of the 4 August 1972 Ultra‐Fast Coronal Mass Ejecta: Facts, Commentary, and Call to Action

Key Points

  • The 4 August 1972 flare, shock, and geomagnetic storm are components of a Carrington-class event
  • The event was associated with a nearly instantaneous, unintended detonation of dozens of sea mines near Hai Phong, North Vietnam
  • The entire series of events in August 1972 should be viewed as a grand challenge to current-day space weather models

Plain Language Summary

The extreme space weather events of early August 1972 had significant impact on the U.S. Navy, which have not been widely reported. These effects, long buried in the Vietnam War archives, add credence to the severity of the storm: a nearly instantaneous, unintended detonation of dozens of sea mines south of Hai Phong, North Vietnam on 4 August 1972. This event occurred near the end of the Vietnam War. The U.S. Navy attributed the dramatic event to magnetic perturbations of solar storms. In researching these events we determined that the widespread electric- and communication-grid disturbances that plagued North America and the disturbances in southeast Asia late on 4 August likely resulted from propagation of major eruptive activity from the Sun to the Earth. The activity fits the description of a Carrington-class storm minus the low-latitude aurora reported in 1859. We provide insight into the solar, geophysical, and military circumstances of this extraordinary situation. In our view this storm deserves a scientific revisit as a grand challenge for the space weather community, as it provides space-age terrestrial observations of what was likely a Carrington-class storm.

Open access

The Shipwreck of the Airship “Dirigibile Italia” in the 1928 Polar Venture: A Retrospective Analysis of the Ionospheric and Geomagnetic Conditions

Key Points

  • The ionospheric and geomagnetic conditions during the 1928 “Dirigibile Italia” shipwreck are investigated
  • HF radio communications problems encountered by the survivors are discussed
  • Radio links of the Red Tent were significantly affected by skip distance issues

Open access

Intensity and Impact of the New York Railroad Superstorm of May 1921

Key Points

  • The magnetic storm of May 1921 attained a maximum −Dst of 907 ± 132 nT
  • Low-latitude geomagnetic disturbance exhibited extreme local time asymmetry
  • Anecdotal evidence from impacts across New York State underscores importance of recent research on geomagnetically induced currents

Plain Language Summary

Historical records of ground-level geomagnetic disturbance are analyzed for the magnetic superstorm of May 1921. This storm was almost certainly driven by a series of interplanetary coronal mass ejections of plasma from an active region on the Sun. The May 1921 storm was one of the most intense ever recorded by ground-level magnetometers. It exhibited violent levels of geomagnetic disturbance, caused widespread interference to telephone and telegraph systems in New York City and State, and brought spectacular aurorae to the nighttime sky. Results inform modern projects for assessing and mitigating the effects of magnetic storms that might occur in the future.

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