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Issue Information

  •  27 January 2022
Open access

A Method to Mitigate the Effects of Strong Geomagnetic Storm on GNSS Precise Point Positioning

  •  6 January 2022

Key Points

  • Strong geomagnetic storm can significantly degrade the performance of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) precise point positioning (PPP)

  • Geometry-free cycle slip detection observation shows close relationship to the ionospheric disturbance index rate of total electron content index

  • Positioning accuracy of GNSS PPP based on cycle slip threshold model is generally better than that of conventional PPP

Open access

Analysis of Long‐Term GIC Measurements in Transformers in Austria

  •  29 December 2021

Key Points

  • Measurements of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power grid substation transformers have been carried out since September 2016 in Austria

  • We summarize the measurements until now and discuss data quality and sources of noise

  • A statistical analysis of GIC measurements, a comparison of simulation models for two storms and an attempt to a risk assessment is performed

Open access

Sensitivity of Ground Magnetometer Array Elements for GIC Applications I: Resolving Spatial Scales With the BEAR and CARISMA Arrays

  •  29 December 2021

Key Points

  • Occurrence distributions of dBH/dt during two similar storms at two different ground magnetometer arrays are found to be log-normal

  • Two-point dBH/dt vector correlations between distant stations are lower within the auroral oval than at mid-latitudes

  • Magnetometers placed 200 km apart should provide required coverage of localized large dBH/dt events for geomagnetically induced current applications

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Issue Information

  •  27 December 2021
Open access

Development of a High‐Latitude Convection Model by Application of Machine Learning to SuperDARN Observations

  •  23 December 2021

Key Points

  • Existing convection climatologies don't capture internal magnetospheric state

  • Machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to generate reasonably accurate convection models

  • A convection model generated with ML produces lower error than an existing model, which was generated by simple binning

Open access

High‐Latitude Electrodynamics Specified in SAMI3 Using AMPERE Field‐Aligned Currents

  •  22 December 2021

Key Points

  • Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) field-aligned currents have been combined with the Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3) model to estimate the high-latitude potential

  • Independent validation of the new technique using satellite drifts and ground-based total electron content indicates good agreement overall

  • The SAMI3 model performs better in this case when using AMPERE-derived potentials than when using the empirical Weimer potential

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Ground GNSS Station Selection to Generate the Global Ionosphere Maps Using the Information Content

  •  19 December 2021

Key Points

  • The information content is introduced to quantitatively evaluate the variation of information before and after adding a measurement

  • A step-to-step iterative method based on the information content is used to select the stations to generate the Global Ionosphere Maps

  • The information contribution from GPS, GLONASS, GALILEO, and BEIDOU satellite constellations is preliminarily analyzed

Open access

Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity

  •  16 December 2021

Key Points

  • Trends observed in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays suggest that the Sun might be in a secular minimum

  • The next two cycles will probably be weaker than average

  • Cycle 25 will be as weak as or weaker than cycle 24

Open access

Multi‐Instrument Investigation of the Impact of the Space Weather Events of 6–10 September 2017

  •  16 December 2021

Key Points

  • The X9.3/X8.7 flare induced peak vertical Total Electron Content increase of 7.9%/18.8% in Ascension Island/Kourou with rise time of 2/9 min

  • The total radio fade-out lasted from 30 to 90 min at the Hermanus and Sao Luis ionosondes during the flares

  • The risk level to critical ground infrastructures based on the Ground Induced Current hazard was very low at the low-latitude

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The Short‐time Prediction of the Energetic Electron Flux in the Planetary Radiation Belt Based on Stacking Ensemble‐Learning Algorithm

  •  1 February 2022

Key Points

  • We present a short-time prediction of the electron flux in the planetary radiation belt based on five different machine learning methods

  • We compared the electron flux predictions from 30 keV to 4 MeV and all five models can present valid short-time flux forecasts

  • Further experiments on Saturn also show the validation of the ensemble model

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Attention‐based machine vision models and techniques for solar wind speed forecasting using solar EUV images

  •  1 February 2022

Key Points

  • Attention-based machine vision models and methodological enhancements are developed to improve solar wind speed forecasts from solar images

  • Attention-based architectures outperform convolutional models, motivating their use in future studies and production systems

  • The models perform best when solar activity is driven by coronal holes, such as in the declining phase of the solar cycle

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A New Standalone Tool for DC‐Equivalent Network Generation and GIC Calculation in Power Grids with Multiple Voltage Levels

  •  29 January 2022

Key Points

  • A method is presented to systematically construct a DC-equivalent network from the information provided by the power grid operators

  • A computationally improved technique has been developed to compute the GIC from the DC-equivalent network

  • The whole procedure can be readily applied to assess the vulnerability of power networks to the GIC threat

Open access

Development of the storm‐induced ionospheric irregularities at equatorial and middle latitudes during the 25X02013;26 August 2018 geomagnetic storm

  •  28 January 2022

Key Points

  • Geomagnetic storm in solar minimum initiated development of equatorial ionospheric irregularities of large latitudinal extent upto 25 MLAT

  • Plasma depletions of equatorial origin transported in northwestward direction across midlatitudes towards auroral zone

  • Atypical ionospheric irregularities moving towards higher latitudes cause rare spread-F echoes at a midlatitude ionosonde (42 MLAT)

Open access

Solar wind ‐ magnetosphere coupling functions: pitfalls, limitations and applications

  •  24 January 2022

Key Points

  • Analysis of the persistence of solar wind parameters defines how best to compile a coupling function, including handling data gaps

  • Correlation is not always the best metric to test performance of a coupling function for a given application

  • As well as matching the large-event tail, coupling functions need to match the core of activity distributions to quantify integrated effects

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Parameter Distributions for the Drag‐Based Modeling of CME Propagation

  •  21 January 2022

Key Points

  • A new CME-ICME database is created from observations from multiple sources

  • Statistical distributions for the model parameters are determined using the database and the DBM equations,taking uncertainties into account

  • The PDBM is updated with the new distributions and validated with a different CME database

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Statistical Characterization of GITM Thermospheric Horizontal Winds in Comparison to GOCE Estimations

  •  20 January 2022

Key Points

  • Cross-track horizontal winds from GOCE are compared to GITM for Jan-Oct 2013

  • GITM captured the overall distribution of horizontal winds, but with lower means than GOCE

  • GITM overpredicts horizontal wind just outside the equatorial ionization anomaly regions

Open access

A new way of estimating the spatial and temporal components of the Vertical Total Electron Content gradient based on UPC‐IonSAT Global Ionosphere Maps

  •  17 January 2022

Key Points

  • A new ionospheric temporal and spatial gradient index based on UPC-IonSAT Global Ionosphere Maps (UQRG) are presented at the selected region

  • The new ionospheric spatial gradients indices at grid points of UQRG are presented

  • The derived ionospheric spatial gradients and temporal variations indices are analyzed during quiet and disturbed ionosphere states

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OSPREI: A Coupled Approach to Modeling CME‐Driven Space Weather with Automatically‐Generated, User‐Friendly Outputs

  •  5 January 2022

Key Points

  • OSPREI performs ensemble simulations of the Sun-to-Earth behavior of CMEs on time scales relevant for future forecasting

  • A standardized set of automatically-generated visualizations can provide essential information for forecasters in an intuitive manner

  • Mimicking a forecasting approach, we apply OSPREI to the 22 April 2021 CME to illustrate its capabilities

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Intense, long‐duration geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) caused by intense substorm clusters

  •  4 January 2022

Key Points

  • Geomagnetically induced currents urn:x-wiley:15427390:media:swe21261:swe21261-math-0004 A occur as long-duration clusters

  • Intense substorm clusters are most effective in causing such events

  • Statistical relationship between the two are investigated

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International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real‐time weather predictions

Key Points

  • New models for the F2 peak height hmF2 in IRI-2016
  • Development of the Real-Time International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)
  • Improved description of IRI ion composition at low and high solar activities

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

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Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Key Points

  • The median symmetric accuracy and symmetric signed percentage bias are introduced to address some drawbacks of current metrics
  • The spread of a multiplicative linear model can be robustly estimated using the log accuracy ratio
  • The properties of the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias are demonstrated on radiation belt examples

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Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

Key Points

  • We provide a broad overview of the status of the GIC field
  • We utilize the Applications Readiness Levels (ARL) concept to quantify the maturity of our GIC-related modeling and applications
  • This paper is the high-level report of the NASA Living With a Star GIC Working Group findings

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A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

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Modeling geomagnetically induced currents

Key Points

  • GIC modeling can now include geomagnetic disturbance characteristics and Earth conductivity to calculate GIC throughout a power system
  • Inclusion of geomagnetic disturbance characteristics and 3-D Earth conductivity structure in GIC modeling is often limited by lack of data
  • GIC modeling has a high state of application readiness and is used for hazard assessments and real-time geomagnetic disturbance management

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Midlatitude Plasma Bubbles Over China and Adjacent Areas During a Magnetic Storm on 8 September 2017

Key Points

  • Postsunset midlatitude plasma bubbles were observed over China and adjacent areas using GNSS TEC, Swarm Ne, and ionosonde data
  • The plasma bubbles were triggered by PPEF and TID in equatorial regions and extended along the magnetic field lines to 50°N (45.5 MLAT)
  • Plasma bubbles might reach an altitude of 6,600 km over the magnetic equator with the upper limit of upward drift speed being around 700 m/s

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Open access

Beating 1 Sievert: Optimal Radiation Shielding of Astronauts on a Mission to Mars

Key Points

  • Space missions to Mars should be scheduled to be launched during solar max

  • Optimal spacecraft shielding is ~30 g/cm2, which allows long-duration flights of ~4 years

  • Increase of shielding thickness beyond ~30 g/cm2 results in dose increase

Plain Language Summary

Space particle radiation is one of the main concerns in planning long-term human space missions. There are two main types of hazardous particle radiation: (a) solar energetic particles (SEP) originating from the Sun and (b) galactic cosmic rays (GCR) that come from the distant galaxies in space. Fluxes in particles of solar origin maximize during solar maximum when particles originating from the distant galaxies are more efficiently deflected from the solar system during times when the sun is active. Our calculations clearly demonstrate that the best time for launching a human space flight to Mars is during the solar maximum, as it is possible to shield from SEP particles. Our simulations show that an increase in shielding creates an increase in secondary radiation produced by the most energetic GCR, which results in a higher dose, introducing a limit to a mission duration. We estimate that a potential mission to Mars should not exceed approximately 4 years. This study shows that while space radiation imposes strict limitations and presents technological difficulties for the human mission to Mars, such a mission is still viable.

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A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

Open access

The Great Storm of May 1921: An Exemplar of a Dangerous Space Weather Event

Key Points

  • A review of scientific papers, newspapers, and other reports is used to build a timeline of the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921
  • The first part of the storm created conditions that enabled later activity to cause some of the most severe geoelectric fields on record
  • This timeline adds to the knowledge we can use to develop the scenarios needed to plan mitigation of future severe space weather

Plain Language Summary

The severe space weather event of 13-16 May 1921 produced some spectacular technological impacts, in some cases causing destructive fires. It was characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic variations, and spectacular aurora, recorded at many locations around the world. A wealth of information is available in scientific journals, newspapers, and other sources, enabling us to reconstruct the storm timeline. This shows that a series of major coronal mass ejections (CMEs) bombarded Earth in May 1921. The first pair may have prepared the way for latter intense activity, clearing density from the region between Sun and Earth, and energizing Earth's magnetosphere. Thus, a subsequent CME could travel more quickly and drive even more energy into the already active magnetosphere. This CME arrived late on 14 May, driving very intense activity early on 15 May, and leading to the spectacular technological effects. However, some effects, attributed at the time to space weather, were probably coincidental with the storm, and due to more prosaic faults. The timeline of the 1921 event, including the confusion caused by prosaic faults, can be used to construct scenarios for use today by those emergency managers planning how to reduce the adverse impacts of future space weather events.

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

Plain Language Summary

In the last decade, machine learning has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications. In particular, the combination of massive data sets and computing with specialized processors (graphics processing units, or GPUs) can perform as well or better than humans in tasks like image classification and game playing. Space weather is a discipline that lives between academia and industry, given the relevant physical effects on satellites and power grids in a variety of applications, and the field therefore stands to benefit from the advances made in industrial applications. Today, machine learning poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the space weather community. The challenge is that the current data science revolution has not been fully embraced, possibly because space physicists remain skeptical of the gains achievable with machine learning. If the community can master the relevant technical skills, they should be able to appreciate what is possible within a few years time and what is possible within a decade. The clearest opportunity lies in creating space weather forecasting models that can respond in real time and that are built on both physics predictions and on observed data.

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On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events

Key Points

  • Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12%

  • Space physics datasets often display a power-law distribution

  • Power-law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

Open access

Intensity and Impact of the New York Railroad Superstorm of May 1921

Key Points

  • The magnetic storm of May 1921 attained a maximum −Dst of 907 ± 132 nT
  • Low-latitude geomagnetic disturbance exhibited extreme local time asymmetry
  • Anecdotal evidence from impacts across New York State underscores importance of recent research on geomagnetically induced currents

Plain Language Summary

Historical records of ground-level geomagnetic disturbance are analyzed for the magnetic superstorm of May 1921. This storm was almost certainly driven by a series of interplanetary coronal mass ejections of plasma from an active region on the Sun. The May 1921 storm was one of the most intense ever recorded by ground-level magnetometers. It exhibited violent levels of geomagnetic disturbance, caused widespread interference to telephone and telegraph systems in New York City and State, and brought spectacular aurorae to the nighttime sky. Results inform modern projects for assessing and mitigating the effects of magnetic storms that might occur in the future.

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The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

Key Points

  • The 23-27 May 1967 event was a “Great” solar and geospace storm
  • First Air Force Solar Forecasting Unit partially mitigated the impacts of extreme solar radio bursts on U.S. military
  • The storm led to military recognition of space environment effects as an operational concern and helped establish a forecasting system

Open access

The Geomagnetic Kp Index and Derived Indices of Geomagnetic Activity

Key Points

  • Production and distribution of nowcast and definitive Kp index and derived products

  • Kp is estimated to have decreased from 1932 to 2020 by one third of a unit due to geomagnetic secular variation

  • Improved agreement between nowcast and definitive Kp since August 2020

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Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Key Points

  • The median symmetric accuracy and symmetric signed percentage bias are introduced to address some drawbacks of current metrics
  • The spread of a multiplicative linear model can be robustly estimated using the log accuracy ratio
  • The properties of the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias are demonstrated on radiation belt examples

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