Projects

Weather and climate extremes are associated with large impacts on society and environment, and frequency of some of these extremes has increased and/or is projected to increase in a future climate. It is important to better understand physical mechanisms leading to extremes, their mutual links, and how they are reproduced in climate models. The project deals with temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, with focus on warm season. The main aims are to (i) examine the role of atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere coupling in initiating development of temperature extremes and supporting their persistence in observed climate and ERA-5 reanalysis, including the study of links to extremes of precipition and other variables, (ii) analyze spatial patterns of differences between individual driving mechanisms (advective, radiative, and land-surface factors) in key regions of Europe, and (iii) evaluate ability of current high-resolution climate models to reproduce the driving mechanisms of extremes and their spatial patterns. This represents an important step towards better understanding credibility of climate model outputs, and for further model improvements.
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High-impact winter weather significantly affects both nature and society. Its severity may not decrease despite the growing global temperature, due to changes in atmospheric circulation in a future climate. The proposed project aims to expand knowledge of high-impact winter weather and, specifically, to evaluate threats associated with winter extremes that should be included in the preparation of adaptation strategies. The project aims (i) to analyse temporal and spatial variability of observed high-impact weather events over central Europe and their links to atmospheric circulation and other variables, (ii) to evaluate the ability of current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models to simulate high-impact weather events and their links to circulation, and (iii) to assess changes of those events in possible future climates in two sets of model projections (forced by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways) for two periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100). Added value of studying compound extreme events (e.g. the combination of low temperature and high wind velocity) will be assessed.
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Many complex process-based models are available in Europe to project future climate impacts. Yet, the current climate impact research community is fragmented, modeling mostly individual systems. The integration of climate impacts across different natural and societal sectors is only slowly emerging. Likewise, attribution of impacts to climate and other factors is still a strongly under-researched field given that climate change is already strongly manifesting itself, an increasing number of court cases dealing with climate impacts is being negotiated and policy debates on loss and damage are intensifying. This lack of coordination amongst impact modelers and insufficient awareness about impact attribution methods hampers important scientific and political progress and more coordination and networking is urgently needed. Therefore, PROCLIAS aims to develop common protocols, harmonized datasets and a joint understanding of how to conduct cross-sectoral, multi-model climate impact studies at regional and global scales allowing for attribution of impacts of recent climatic changes and robust projections of future climate impacts. The Action will do so by focusing on key interactions of climate impacts across sectors, their accumulated effect, especially of extreme events, the attribution of impacts to climate change and the quantification of uncertainties. PROCLIAS will make use of all COST networking tools to train young researchers to conduct and analyse multi-model simulations in a cross-sectoral way, to support a common platform for collecting impact model simulations and methods for analyzing them and to disseminate the data, code and results to scientists as well as, in a more synthesized form, to stakeholders.
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