Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period April 01 - April 07, 2022

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B6.0 - C1.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 135-150 (Apr 1 - 3) and 105-125 (Apr 4 - 7)
Events: class C (2-14/day), class M (2-8/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 55-200

Martina Pavelkova and Simona Beerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 01 - April 07, 2022

Quiet: Apr 2 - 3, 6
Unsettled: Apr 1 - 5, 7
Active: Apr 1, 4, 7
Minor storm: possible Apr 7
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Within the next 24 hours, we expect the coming storming event 
culmination. The other active event with possible stroming event is also 
possible at the end of currently forecasted period, about Thursday, 
April 7. Unlikely, an another active event is also possible about 
Monday, April 4. Other days, we expected quiet to unsettled conditions 
mostly near the higher level. Quiet to unsettled conditions closer the 
quieter level is expected about Sunday, April 3, and Wednesday, April 6.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere April 01 - April 07, 2022

(Free continuation of my Earth's magnetic field activity predictions,
published between 1978 - 2021.)

We have a week of somewhat wilder development behind us. Its first
indication were two sunspot groups on the northeastern limb of the solar
disc on March 24. The second of them, region No. 2976 was larger, but
smaller. Region No. 2975 had a more complex magnetic structure and
gradually grew. A proton solar flare was observed there on March 28 at
11:29 UT, accompanied by a significant increase in proton levels. And above
all - it was followed by CME heading to Earth!

Exactly as predicted, the arrival of CME caused a geomagnetic disturbance
on March 31. Its positive phase of development was accompanied, especially
in the UTC morning hours, by a significant improvement in the shortwave
propagation conditions on a global scale.

Another solar flare was observed in the same area on March 30 with a
maximum at 17:37 UT. Although X-ray levels rose more than on March 28,
followed by CME again (albeit weaker, at 18:23 UT),  there is no
expectation that it would be followed by a similar increase in gemagnetic
activity

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU 

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