Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period April 29 - May 05, 2022

Activity level: mostly medium
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.8 - C2.3
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 125-165
Events: class C (1-5/day), class M (1-6/period), class X (0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 90-130

Simona Beerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 29 - May 05, 2022

Quiet: May 3 - 5
Unsettled: Apr 30 - May 2, May 4 - 5
Active: Apr 29, less likely May 5
Minor storm: Apr 29
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
We expect the actives event during the coming hours, at Friday, April 
29, we expect active conditions continue.
Next days, we expect partial geomagnetic activity decrease to unsettled 
level. Since Tuesday, we expect quiet condtitions return to the end of 
currently forecasted period. The last day of this forecast, geomagnetic 
activity enhancement is possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere April 29 - May 05, 2022

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
- April 28, 2022
(Free continuation of my Earth's magnetic field activity predictions,
published between 1978 - 2021.)

Last week we witnessed higher solar activity. Large active areas passed
through the central meridian and produced medium-sized eruptions (class M)
and occasionally large eruptions (class X). While at the end of the period
these areas in the northwest were sinking, other and slightly smaller areas
in the southeast of the disk emerged.
There have been two increases in geomagnetic activity – one was expected on
the night of April 20-21, second one, rather unexpected, by afternoon of
April 27.
The gradual increase in solar radiation has significantly improved the
propagation conditions of decameter waves. Its improvement was supported by
the positive storm phase during the afternoon of April 27, when the
critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer in mid-latitudes exceeded
10 MHz and MUF on transatlantic routes rose above 30 MHz. The negative
storm phase followed on April 28.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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