Projects

Relationships between weather and human health are very complex. Many studies have shown a typical seasonal pattern of mortality, with its maximum in the cold period and minimum in summer. It remains unclear, however, to what extent seasonality of mortality can be explained by direct effects of winter weather and to what extent other factors are important, such as incidence of acute respiratory diseases (until recently, mainly seasonal influenza epidemics). This topic has become even more relevant in connection with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which caused unprecedented excess mortality in 2020 and 2021. The aim of the project is to assess historical connections between weather variability, seasonal patterns of mortality, and the occurrence of acute respiratory infections in temperate climate conditions. Special emphasis will be given to how these patterns have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
close

Long-term changes (trends) in short-term (day-to-day to intraseasonal) variability of temperature and precipitation are examined in the Northern Extratropics, both in the observed data and in outputs of global and regional climate models. Various characteristics of variability, which provide complementary information, are analyzed (standard deviation, persistence, dayto- day variations, transition probabilities, lengths of dry and wet spells). Their climatologies and trends are compared between different dataset types (station, gridded, reanalysis) with the aim to identify biases specific to individual dataset types. We also focus on mechanisms governing the short-term variability, and the day-to-day temperature changes in particular, in which atmospheric fronts are likely to play a role. We validate the short-term variability in climate model outputs and evaluate its future projections by models. Finally, we attempt to find out whether the anthropogenic climate change is already manifested in the recently observed changes of variability
close

The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases affects the troposphere but even more the higher levels of the atmosphere, where it induces cooling. The first scenario of long-term trends in the upper atmosphere (mesosophere-thermosphere-ionosphere) was created by an international team in 2006 (Laštovička et al., 2006, Science). It has been improved but still it is not connected with trends in the stratosphere. Until recently the trends in the stratosphere and upper atmosphere were studied separately. The trends are affected also by other drivers, not only by greenhouse gases (mainly CO2), which change in time. The project is therefore focused on various aspects of trends in the stratosphere to improve possibilities of their comparison and joining with trends in the upper atmosphere, then on removing new problems in studying ionospheric trends, on specification of temporally varying roles of various non-CO2 trend drives, and on the main aim of the project, creation of the first joint scenario of long-term trends in the stratosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere-ionosphere system.
close

Many complex process-based models are available in Europe to project future climate impacts. Yet, the current climate impact research community is fragmented, modeling mostly individual systems. The integration of climate impacts across different natural and societal sectors is only slowly emerging. Likewise, attribution of impacts to climate and other factors is still a strongly under-researched field given that climate change is already strongly manifesting itself, an increasing number of court cases dealing with climate impacts is being negotiated and policy debates on loss and damage are intensifying. This lack of coordination amongst impact modelers and insufficient awareness about impact attribution methods hampers important scientific and political progress and more coordination and networking is urgently needed. Therefore, PROCLIAS aims to develop common protocols, harmonized datasets and a joint understanding of how to conduct cross-sectoral, multi-model climate impact studies at regional and global scales allowing for attribution of impacts of recent climatic changes and robust projections of future climate impacts. The Action will do so by focusing on key interactions of climate impacts across sectors, their accumulated effect, especially of extreme events, the attribution of impacts to climate change and the quantification of uncertainties. PROCLIAS will make use of all COST networking tools to train young researchers to conduct and analyse multi-model simulations in a cross-sectoral way, to support a common platform for collecting impact model simulations and methods for analyzing them and to disseminate the data, code and results to scientists as well as, in a more synthesized form, to stakeholders.
close

Weather and climate extremes are associated with large impacts on society and environment, and frequency of some of these extremes has increased and/or is projected to increase in a future climate. It is important to better understand physical mechanisms leading to extremes, their mutual links, and how they are reproduced in climate models. The project deals with temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, with focus on warm season. The main aims are to (i) examine the role of atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere coupling in initiating development of temperature extremes and supporting their persistence in observed climate and ERA-5 reanalysis, including the study of links to extremes of precipition and other variables, (ii) analyze spatial patterns of differences between individual driving mechanisms (advective, radiative, and land-surface factors) in key regions of Europe, and (iii) evaluate ability of current high-resolution climate models to reproduce the driving mechanisms of extremes and their spatial patterns. This represents an important step towards better understanding credibility of climate model outputs, and for further model improvements.
close

Monitoring space weather events is crucial. The EU-funded SafeSpace project aims to advance space weather nowcasting and forecasting capabilities, contributing significantly to the safety of space assets through the transition of powerful tools from research to operations. This will be achieved through the synergy of five well-established space weather models. SafeSpace hopes to improve radiation belt, culminating in a prototype early warning system for detrimental space weather events, integrating information all the way from the Sun to the inner magnetosphere. Working, also, with a major European space company, SafeSpace, hopes to define indicators of particle radiation of use to space industry and spacecraft operators.
close

A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth\'s magnetosphere. It occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth. Predicting these storms is vital. This is the objective of the EU-funded PAGER project, which has assembled a team of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the United States. The project will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments. This will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a threat. The most advanced codes will be used, adapted to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications.  
close

High-impact winter weather significantly affects both nature and society. Its severity may not decrease despite the growing global temperature, due to changes in atmospheric circulation in a future climate. The proposed project aims to expand knowledge of high-impact winter weather and, specifically, to evaluate threats associated with winter extremes that should be included in the preparation of adaptation strategies. The project aims (i) to analyse temporal and spatial variability of observed high-impact weather events over central Europe and their links to atmospheric circulation and other variables, (ii) to evaluate the ability of current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models to simulate high-impact weather events and their links to circulation, and (iii) to assess changes of those events in possible future climates in two sets of model projections (forced by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways) for two periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100). Added value of studying compound extreme events (e.g. the combination of low temperature and high wind velocity) will be assessed.
close

Links between weather and human health have been a subject of increased attention recently, but in spite of growing knowledge, many issues remain open. The main aims of the project are to (i) improve methodological aspects of modelling weather-related morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic using advanced statistical tools; (ii) identify susceptible population groups and examine modifying effects of characteristics such as age, health disorders, and education; (iii) identify differences in the susceptible population groups between urban and rural regions and in relation to socioeconomic status; and (iv) examine changes in weather-related morbidity and mortality over recent decades and their links to changes in the population structure, its socioeconomic status, diseases prevalence, and environmental factors. The project makes use of nationwide cause-specific mortality and morbidity data sets, and its results will allow for better understanding of the weather-to-human health links, which is necessary for preventing excess deaths.
close

The main aim is development and testing of new features of the parametric spatial weather generator, so that it can be used to produce more realistic gridded weather series representing present and future climate conditions on various spatial and temporal scales. In completing the project aims (A) The surface weather generator will be linked with generator of modes of circulation variability, which will allow to account for the advection of spatial surface weather patterns and effect of the larger scale circulation on weather. (B) The nesting scheme will be developed to condition the high-resolution generator run on the smaller area with shorter time step on the lower-resolution generator. (C) The generator parameters will be modified with climate change scenarios, which will be derived from the Regional Climate Model simulations and account also for changes in temporal circulation variability and spatial weather variability. The generator will be validated using multiple climatological indices and its performance compared with other available gridded surface weather series.
close

Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) constitute a threat for operational systems for which the ionosphere is an essential part (i.e., radio systems) or for which the ionosphere is fundamentally a nuisance (i.e. GNSS based systems and applications). The overarching objective of TechTIDE is to design and test new viable TID impact mitigation strategies for the technologies affected by the TIDs and in close collaboration with operators of these technologies, to demonstrate the added value of the proposed mitigation techniques which are based on TechTIDE products. To achieve this main goal, it is necessary to address the following specific objectives: i. Improve understanding regarding the physical processes resulting in the formation of TIDs, and consequently to identify the drivers in the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere and the atmosphere; ii. Define the impact of the TIDs on the space based navigation systems (mainly EGNOS services and N-RTK) and on ground-based HF communication and geolocation systems; iii. Develop improved methodologies, based on consortium partners’ algorithms, suitable to support for the first time the direct,real-time identification and tracking of TIDs over wide world regions; iv. Establish an operational system to issue warnings of the occurrence of TIDs over the region extending from Europe to South Africa, to estimate the parameters that specify the TID characteristics and the inferred perturbation, and provide all additional geophysical information to the users to help them assess the risks and to develop mitigation techniques, tailored to their applications; v. Work systematically with potential users to assess the functionality, reliability and efficiency of the TechTIDE services paving the way to its systematic exploitation from users and to its sustainable operation.
close

The Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI) will address key scientific and technological challenges facing modern planetary science by providing open access to state-of-the-art research data, models and facilities across the European Research Area. Its Transnational Access activities will provide access to world-leading laboratory facilities that simulate conditions found on planetary bodies as well as specific analogue field sites for Mars, Europa and Titan. Its Virtual Access activities will make available the diverse datasets and visualisation tools needed for comparing and understanding planetary environments in the Solar System and beyond. By providing the underpinning facilities that European planetary scientists need to conduct their research, EPN2020-RI will create cooperation and effective synergies between its different components: space exploration, ground-based observations, laboratory and field experiments, numerical modelling, and technology. EPN2020-RI builds on the foundations of successful FP6 and FP7 Europlanet programmes that established the ‘Europlanet brand’ and built structures that will be used in the Networking Activities of EPN2020-RI to coordinate the European planetary science community’s research. It will disseminate its results to a wide range of stakeholders including industry, policy makers and, crucially, both the wider public and the next generation of researchers and opinion formers, now in education. As an Advanced Infrastructure we place particular emphasis on widening the participation of previously under-represented research communities and stakeholders. We will include new countries and Inclusiveness Member States, via workshops, team meetings, and personnel exchanges, to broaden/widen/expand and improve the scientific and innovation impact of the infrastructure. EPN2020-RI will therefore build a truly pan-European community that shares common goals, facilities, personnel, data and IP across national boundaries
close

It has been robustly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate throughout the troposphere all the way to the Earth’s surface. A key part of the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary-scale Rossby waves and gravity waves. Limited observation of the middle atmosphere and these waves in particular limits the ability to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models. ARISE2 capitalizes upon the work of the EU-funded first ARISE project combining for the first time international networks with complementary technologies such as infrasound, lidar and airglow. This joint network provided advanced data products that started to be used as benchmarks for weather forecast models. The ARISE network also allows enhanced and detailed monitoring of other extreme events in the Earth system such as erupting volcanoes, magnetic storms, tornadoes and tropical thunderstorms. In order to improve the ability of the network to monitor atmospheric dynamics, ARISE2 proposes to extend i) the existing network coverage in Africa and the high latitudes, ii) the altitude range in the stratosphere and mesosphere, iii) the observation duration using routine observation modes, and to use complementary existing infrastructures and innovative instrumentations. Data will be collected over the long term to improve weather forecasting to monthly or seasonal timescales, to monitor atmospheric extreme events and climate change. Compared to the first ARISE project, ARISE2 focuses on the link between models and observations for future assimilation of data by operational weather forecasting models. Among the applications, ARISE2 proposes infrasound remote volcano monitoring to provide notifications to civil aviation. The data portal will provide high-quality data and advanced data products to a wide scientific community.
close