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Weather and Forecasting

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Weather and Forecasting (WAF) publishes research that is relevant to operational forecasting. This includes papers on significant weather events, forecasting techniques, forecast verification, model parameterizations, data assimilation, model ensembles, statistical postprocessing techniques, the transfer of research results to the forecasting community, and the societal use and value of forecasts. The scope of WAF includes research relevant to forecast lead times ranging from short-term “nowcasts” through seasonal time scales out to approximately two years.

ISSN: 0002-8156; elSSN: 1520-0434

Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University

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3.025

2020 Journal Impact Factors in the Meteorology and Atmospheric Science category

Weather and Forecasting moves to monthly publication schedule in 2022

AMS Publications is happy to announce that Weather and Forecasting (WAF), now entering its 37th year as one of AMS’s leading journals, will be moving to a monthly publication schedule starting with the January 2022 issue.

Founded in 1986, WAF was published quarterly until moving to a six-issue-per-year bimonthly journal in 1999. Its progress to a monthly publication reflects the growing page count and popularity it enjoys, and is a testament to its enduring value to the research and operational forecasting community.

Open access

The Impact of Incorporating the Air-Lake Interaction on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over Southern Ontario, Canada

Zuohao Cao, Stéphane Bélair, and Da-Lin Zhang

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0187.1

Published Online:: 02 Jun 2022

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Atmospheric River Reconnaissance 2021: A Review

Alison Cobb, F. Martin Ralph, Vijay Tallapragada, Anna M. Wilson, Christopher A. Davis, Luca Delle Monache, James D. Doyle, Florian Pappenberger, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Aneesh Subramanian, Peter G. Black, Forest Cannon, Chris Castellano, Jason M. Cordeira, Jennifer S. Haase, Chad Hecht, Brian Kawzenuk, David A. Lavers, Michael J. Murphy Jr., Jack Parrish, Ryan Rickert, Jonathan J. Rutz, Ryan Torn, Xingren Wu, and Minghua Zheng

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0164.1

Published Online:: 01 Jun 2022

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Forecasting Convection with a ‘Scale-Aware’ Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme at Kilometer Scales

Wei Wang

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0179.1

Published Online:: 01 Jun 2022

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The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part 1: Motivation and System Description

David C. Dowell, Curtis R. Alexander, Eric P. James, Stephen S. Weygandt, Stanley G. Benjamin, Geoffrey S. Manikin, Benjamin T. Blake, John M. Brown, Joseph B. Olson, Ming Hu, Tatiana G. Smirnova, Terra Ladwig, Jaymes S. Kenyon, Ravan Ahmadov, David D. Turner, Jeffrey D. Duda, and Trevor I. Alcott

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0151.1

Published Online:: 27 May 2022

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The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part 2: Forecast Performance

Eric P. James, Curtis R. Alexander, David C. Dowell, Stephen S. Weygandt, Stanley G. Benjamin, Geoffrey S. Manikin, John M. Brown, Joseph B. Olson, Ming Hu, Tatiana G. Smirnova, Terra Ladwig, Jaymes S. Kenyon, and David D. Turner

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0130.1

Published Online:: 24 May 2022

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Radar Reflectivity-based Model Initialization using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-forecast Integration

Stephen S. Weygandt, Stanley G. Benjamin, Ming Hu, Curtis R. Alexander, Tatiana G. Smirnova, and Eric P. James

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0142.1

Published Online:: 19 May 2022

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Predicting Rapid Intensification in North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Sarah M. Griffin, Anthony Wimmers, and Christopher S. Velden

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0194.1

Published Online:: 18 May 2022

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Predicting Peak Wind Gusts During Specific Weather Types with the Meteorologically Stratified Gust Factor Model

Victoria A. Lang, Teresa J. Turner, Brandon R. Selbig, Austin R. Harris, and Jonathan D. W. Kahl

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0201.1

Published Online:: 16 May 2022

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ProbSevere LightningCast: A deep-learning model for satellite-based lightning nowcasting

John L. Cintineo, Michael J. Pavolonis, and Justin M. Sieglaff

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0019.1

Published Online:: 16 May 2022

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Sub-severe and Severe Hail

Kimberly L. Elmore, John T. Allen, and Alan E. Gerard

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0156.1

Published Online:: 16 May 2022

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ACCESS-C: Australian Convective-Scale NWP with Hourly 4D-Var Data Assimilation

Susan Rennie, Shaun Cooper, Peter Steinle, Gary Dietachmayer, Monika Krysta, Charmaine Franklin, Chris Bridge, Matthew Marshall, Yi Xiao, and Dean Sgarbossa

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0183.1

Published Online:: 13 May 2022

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Skill Assessment of NCEP Three-way Coupled HWRF-HYCOM-WW3 Modeling System: Hurricane Laura Case Study

Hyun-Sook Kim, Jessica Meixner, Biju Thomas, Brandon Reichl, Bin Liu, Avichal Mehra, and Alan Wallcraft

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0191.1

Published Online:: 11 May 2022

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A conceptual synoptic model approach to the development of a precipitation climatology as applied to Montreal, Quebec

Kai Melamed-Turkish, Shawn Milrad, John Gyakum, and Eyad Atallah

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0139.1

Published Online:: 06 May 2022

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The Impact of Data Latency on Operational Global Weather Forecasting

Sean P.F. Casey and Lidia Cucurull

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0149.1

Published Online:: 03 May 2022

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Impact of assimilating adaptively thinned AIRS cloud-cleared radiances on the analysis of Polar Lows and Mediterranean Sea Tropical-like Cyclone in a global modeling and data assimilation framework

Manisha Ganeshan, Oreste Reale, Erica McGrath-Spangler, and Niama Boukachaba

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0068.1

Published Online:: 02 May 2022

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Impact of WSR-88D Intra-Volume Low-Level Scans on Severe Weather Warning Performance

John Y. N. Cho, James M. Kurdzo, Betty J. Bennett, Mark E. Weber, Joseph W. Dellicarpini, Andrew Loconto, and Hayden Frank

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0152.1

Published Online:: 29 Apr 2022

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Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)

Thomas Jones, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Gabriel Pereira, Saulo Freitas, and Georg Grell

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0143.1

Published Online:: 28 Apr 2022

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An Evaluation of SurfaceWind and Gust Forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model

Robert G. Fovell and Alex Gallagher

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0176.1

Published Online:: 26 Apr 2022

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Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace

Samuel R. Harrison, James O. Pope, Robert A. Neal, Freya K. Garry, Ryosuke Kurashina, and Dan Suri

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0023.1

Published Online:: 26 Apr 2022

Open access

Real-time simulated storm surge predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)

M.V. Bilskie, T.G. Asher, P.W. Miller, J.G. Fleming, S.C. Hagen, and R.A. Luettich Jr.

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0132.1

Published Online:: 26 Apr 2022

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Prediction Skill of GEFSv12 for Southwest Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Associated Extreme Rainfall Events on Extended Range scale over India

M. M. Nageswararao, Yuejian Zhu, and Vijay Tallapragada

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0184.1

Published Online:: 19 Apr 2022

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Short-term convection-allowing ensemble precipitation forecast sensitivity to resolution of initial condition perturbations and central initial states

Craig S. Schwartz, Jonathan Poterjoy, Glen S. Romine, David C. Dowell, Jacob R. Carley, and Jamie Bresch

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0165.1

Published Online:: 08 Apr 2022

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Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance

David R. Harrison, Matthew S. Elliott, Israel L. Jirak, and Patrick T. Marsh

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0001.1

Published Online:: 08 Apr 2022

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Short-Term Prediction of a Nocturnal Significant Tornado Outbreak Using a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Louis J. Wicker, Kent H. Knopfmeier, William J. S. Miller, Patrick S. Skinner, and Katie A. Wilson

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0160.1

Published Online:: 07 Apr 2022

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Simulated QLCS Vortices in a High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environment

Levi T. Lovell and Matthew D. Parker

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0133.1

Published Online:: 06 Apr 2022

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Learning from Precipitation Events in the Wider Domain to Improve the Performance of a Deep Learning-based Precipitation Nowcasting Model

Tsuyoshi Inoue and Ryohei Misumi

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0078.1

Published Online:: 04 Apr 2022

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The Development of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12

Xiaqiong zhou, Yuejian Zhu, Dingchen Hou, Bing Fu, Wei Li, Hong Guan, Eric Sinsky, Walter Kolczynski, Xianwu Xue, Yan Luo, Jiayi Peng, Bo Yang, Vijay Tallapragada, and Philip Pegion

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0112.1

Published Online:: 28 Mar 2022

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Diurnal and seasonal variability of ERA5 convective parameters in relation to lightning flash rates in Poland

Szymon Poręba, Mateusz Taszarek, and Zbigniew Ustrnul

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0099.1

Published Online:: 25 Mar 2022

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Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction with an Encoding-to-Forecasting Deep Learning Model

Pingping Dong, Jie Lian, Hui Yu, Jianguo Pan, Yuping Zhang, and Guomin Chen

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0116.1

Published Online:: 17 Mar 2022

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A Single Column Model Evaluation of Mixing Length Formulations and Constraints for the sa-TKE-EDMF Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

Edward J. Strobach

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0059.1

Published Online:: 01 Oct 2021

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Using Artificial Neural Networks to Improve CFS Week 3-4 Precipitation and 2-Meter Air Temperature Forecasts

Yun Fan, Vladimir Krasnopolsky, Huug van den Dool, Chung-Yu Wu, and Jon Gottschalck

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0014.1

Published Online:: 20 Jan 2021

Volume 37 (2022): Issue 6 (Jun 2022)

ARTICLES
- Open access
  View license
  
  Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2
  
  Jadwiga H. Richter, Anne A. Glanville, James Edwards, Brian Kauffman, Nicholas A. Davis, Abigail Jaye, Hyemi Kim, Nicholas M. Pedatella, Lantao Sun, Judith Berner, Who M. Kim, Stephen G. Yeager, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Julie M. Caron, and Keith W. Oleson
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0163.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  797–815
- Restricted access
  
  Hurricane Forecasting: A Novel Multimodal Machine Learning Framework
  
  Léonard Boussioux, Cynthia Zeng, Théo Guénais, and Dimitris Bertsimas
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0091.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  817–831
- Open access
  View license
  
  An Intercomparison of Antarctic NWP during the Austral Summer Special Observing Period for the Year of Polar Prediction
  
  Benjamin J. E. Schroeter, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Phil Reid, and Simon P. Alexander
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0088.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  833–852
- Restricted access
  
  WSR-88D Sidelobe Contamination: From a Conceptual Model to Diagnostic Strategies for Improving NWS Warning Performance
  
  Jami B. Boettcher and Evan S. Bentley
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0155.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  853–869
- Restricted access
  
  Comparing and Interpreting Differently Designed Random Forests for Next-Day Severe Weather Hazard Prediction
  
  Eric D. Loken, Adam J. Clark, and Amy McGovern
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0138.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  871–899
- Restricted access
  
  Storm-Scale Predictability and Analysis of the 13 April 2020 Central Savannah River Area Tornado Outbreak
  
  Christopher A. Kerr and Frank Alsheimer
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0185.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  901–913
- Restricted access
  
  Tornado Heading and Speed Changes Associated with Large and Intense Internal Rear-Flank Surges in Three Supercells
  
  Bruce D. Lee and Catherine A. Finley
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0174.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  915–934
- Restricted access
  
  Evaluation and Improvement of a TKE-Based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme in Hurricane Conditions
  
  Xiaomin Chen, George H. Bryan, Andrew Hazelton, Frank D. Marks, and Pat Fitzpatrick
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0168.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  935–951
- Open access
  View license
  
  Measuring Displacement Errors with Complex Wavelets
  
  Sebastian Buschow
  
  DOI:
  
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0180.1
  
  Page(s):
  
  953–970

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Volume: 37 (2022)

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Most cited articles since 1990:

Full access

Revision of Convection and Vertical Diffusion Schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System

Jongil Han and Hua-Lu Pan

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05038.1

Published Online:: Aug 2011

Full access

Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part I: Storm Classification and Climatology

Bryan T. Smith, Richard L. Thompson, Jeremy S. Grams, Chris Broyles, and Harold E. Brooks

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00115.1

Published Online:: Oct 2012

Full access

The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and Its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region

T. Haiden, A. Kann, C. Wittmann, G. Pistotnik, B. Bica, and C. Gruber

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222451.1

Published Online:: Apr 2011

Full access

A Review of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes and Their Sensitivity in Simulating Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments

Ariel E. Cohen, Steven M. Cavallo, Michael C. Coniglio, and Harold E. Brooks

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00105.1

Published Online:: Jun 2015

Full access

Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS Tornado Environments

Richard L. Thompson, Bryan T. Smith, Jeremy S. Grams, Andrew R. Dean, and Chris Broyles

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00116.1

Published Online:: Oct 2012

Full access

Lightning and Severe Weather: A Comparison between Total and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Trends

Christopher J. Schultz, Walter A. Petersen, and Lawrence D. Carey

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05026.1

Published Online:: Oct 2011

Full access

Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer Using Sounding Observations

Michael C. Coniglio, James Correia Jr., Patrick T. Marsh, and Fanyou Kong

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00103.1

Published Online:: Jun 2013

Full access

An Objective High-Resolution Hail Climatology of the Contiguous United States

John L. Cintineo, Travis M. Smith, Valliappa Lakshmanan, Harold E. Brooks, and Kiel L. Ortega

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00151.1

Published Online:: Oct 2012

Full access

Examination of Errors in Near-Surface Temperature and Wind from WRF Numerical Simulations in Regions of Complex Terrain

Hailing Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Xuebo Zhang

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00109.1

Published Online:: Jun 2013

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Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics

Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan, Stanley Goldenberg, Thiago Quirino, Xuejin Zhang, Frank Marks Jr., Kao-San Yeh, Robert Atlas, and Vijay Tallapragada

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00055.1

Published Online:: Jun 2012

Tropical Cyclone Eline and Its Unusual Penetration and Impacts over the Southern African Mainland

C. J. C. Reason and A. Keibel

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2

Page(s):: 789–805

Full access

Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems

Hans Hersbach

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0559:DOTCRP>2.0.CO;2

Page(s):: 559–570

Full access

Tornado-Related Deaths and Injuries in Oklahoma due to the 3 May 1999 Tornadoes

Sheryll Brown, Pam Archer, Elizabeth Kruger, and Sue Mallonee

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0343:TRDAII>2.0.CO;2

Page(s):: 343–353

Full access

20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, Tornado: Damage Survey and Analysis

Donald Burgess, Kiel Ortega, Greg Stumpf, Gabe Garfield, Chris Karstens, Tiffany Meyer, Brandon Smith, Doug Speheger, Jim Ladue, Rick Smith, and Tim Marshall