Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period September 02 - September 08, 2022

Activity level: mostly Low to Moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.7 - C2.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 110-125
Events: class C (1-6/day), class M (0-2/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 50 - 140

Simona Beerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 02 - September 08, 2022

Quiet: Sep 2, 6, 8
Unsettled: Sep 4 - 6, 8
Active: unlikely Sep 2 - 4
Minor storm: Sep 3 - 4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Coming weekend, we expect active episode with probable storming event. 
Since Monday, September 5, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to 
unsettled level. About September 6, the main unsettled activity level 
can be intermitted by quiet episode.
At the end of currently forecasted period, the unsettled level can 
icrease to other active event.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere September 02 - September 08, 2022

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– September 1, 2022
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity,
published in the years 1978 - 2021.)

Last rise in solar activity, especially in the interval 27-30 August, was
triggered by two sunspot groups: AR3088, which on 29 August fell behind the
western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30 August passed
through the central meridian, so entered the region of the so-called
present active longitudes.

Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, while in
both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude. CMEs have been
registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the coronal hole, we would
expect a significant increase in geomagnetic activity – but only at first
approach.

However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity,
confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to its
intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about 4 September
onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar activity can be expected
a few days later.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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