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Issue Information

  •  28 September 2022
Open access

Validation of the DSCOVR Spacecraft Mission Space Weather Solar Wind Products

  •  22 September 2022

Key Points

  • We validate the Deep Space Climate Observatory operational space weather data products

  • Magnetic field data showed good statistical agreement with Wind and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) data

  • Solar wind velocity Geocentric Solar Ecliptic vx-component and density also showed good statistical agreement with Wind and ACE data

Open access

Solar Cycle Variability in Coronal Holes and Their Effects on Solar Wind Sources

  •  22 September 2022

Key Points

  • The solar wind in the ecliptic varies with the solar cycle as coronal field topology changes with the surface magnetic field

  • Potential field source surface models present a picture of this evolution as global coronal hole distributions and low-latitude locations where the open fields map

  • Low latitude coronal holes dominate the local solar wind for much of the cycle, including long periods of recurring high speed streams

Open access

CME Evolution in the Structured Heliosphere and Effects at Earth and Mars During Solar Minimum

  •  19 September 2022

Key Points

  • We analyze the eruption and propagation of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun up to Earth and Mars during August 2018

  • Both CMEs were observed at Earth, but the second missed Mars, possibly due to interaction with a following high-speed solar wind stream

  • The sequence of events observed resulted in a strong magnetic storm at Earth, but only moderate disturbances at Mars

Open access

Spatial and Temporal Confinement of the Ionospheric Responses During the St. Patrick's Day Storm of March 2015

  •  16 September 2022

Key Points

  • Longitudinal differences in the episodic equatorward expansions of the auroral oval

  • Sluggish westward zonal movement of ion density depletions under possible longitudinal difference in the effect of the disturbance dynamo

  • Daytime sustained and confined decrement in the equatorial and low latitudes ion density and vertical total electron content between about 100°E and 170°E longitudes

Open access

Thermospheric Conditions Associated With the Loss of 40 Starlink Satellites

  •  16 September 2022

Key Points

  • Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Global Ultraviolet Imager observed significant thermospheric O/N2 depletion and nitric oxide enhancement during the 3–5 February 2022 storm

  • Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager detected neutral density increase up to ∼60% in the dawn-side and 18% in the duskside during the storm

  • The dawn-dusk difference in neutral density increase was due to pre-storm condition, strong dawnside heating, and co-rotation effect

Open access

Science Through Machine Learning: Quantification of Post-Storm Thermospheric Cooling

  •  15 September 2022

Key Points

  • Machine learning is used to develop models from unique density data sets

  • We compared model predictions along the CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) orbit during the 2003 Halloween storms

  • We find that models developed on CHAMP and High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model density data can capture density depletion in the post-storm period

Open access

ML Prediction of Global Ionospheric TEC Maps

  •  14 September 2022

Key Points

  • Four convolutional long short-term memory (convLSTM)-based models are investigated to forecast global ionospheric total electron content maps with up to 24 hr of lead time at a 1-hr interval

  • The one that implements the L1 loss function and residual strategy demonstrates the best performance among four convLSTM-based models

  • This best performing convLSTM model also shows more accurate prediction compared to c1pg and persistence models

Open access

A Prediction Model of Relativistic Electrons at Geostationary Orbit Using the EMD-LSTM Network and Geomagnetic Indices

  •  13 September 2022

Key Points

  • Propose a prediction model of relativistic electrons using a deep learning algorithm, the Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm-Long Short Term Memory neural network model, to predict the >2 MeV electron fluxes

  • Use the ultralow frequency Pc5 power and related geomagnetic indices as input parameters to predict the >2 MeV electron fluxes

  • The forecast is shown to be highly accurate during case studies of storm times due to small time offset between observation and forecast values

Open access

An Examination of SuperDARN Backscatter Modes Using Machine Learning Guided by Ray-Tracing

  •  12 September 2022

Key Points

  • We developed a new machine learning model that is guided by ray-tracing and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) to examine SuperDARN backscatter modes

  • Our model can be used to classify SuperDARN backscatter into different categories such as meteor, E-/F-region ionosphere and ground/sea

  • The model's error rate is lowest in winter and highest in summer, suggesting uncertainties in the IRI ionosphere are larger in summer

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Radiation Belt Daily Average Electron Flux Model (RB-Daily-E) from the Seven-Year Van Allen Probes Mission and Its Application to Interpret GPS On-orbit Solar Array Degradation

  •  3 October 2022

Key Points

  • The Radiation Belt Daily Average Electron flux model (RB-Daily-E) built on Van Allen Probes and THEMIS data is consistent with GPS CXD and Arase data

  • RB-Daily-E applied to GPS orbit determined that the radiation environment is the prime contributor to GPS solar array voltage degradation

  • RB-Daily-E applied to GPS orbit determined that the radiation environment is a minor contributor to GPS solar array current degradation

Open access

Energetic Electron Flux Predictions in the near-Earth Plasma Sheet from Solar Wind Driving

  •  30 September 2022

Key Points

  • New model predicts plasma sheet electron flux (0.08–93 keV) from solar wind within a factor of two of observed based on MSA metric

  • Input analysis of new model supports that the most impactful drivers are solar wind speed, electric field, and north-south component of IMF

  • Short-term changes of electron flux (less than 1 hr) in the plasma sheet are not predicted from high resolution (5 min) solar wind inputs

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Linkage of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly with the day-to-day occurrence of postsunset irregularities and scintillation in low-latitude region around 110°E

  •  30 September 2022

Key Points

  • EIA strength can be linked with the day-to-day occurrence of postsunset irregularities and scintillation

  • Post-sunset scintillation is likely to occur as electron density above the EIA trough is low

  • Day-to-day variability of electron densities in EIA or EIA strength are not well correlated quantitatively with the scintillation intensity

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Automatic Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Wind In Situ Data

  •  27 September 2022

Key Points

  • We automatically detect interplanetary coronal mass ejections in solar wind in situ data

  • We achieve a True Skill Statistic (TSS) of 0.64, Recall of 0.67 and Precision of 0.70 on data from Wind

  • We propose a pipeline generally applicable to time series event detection problems

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Forecasting GIC activity associated with solar wind shocks for the Australian region power network

  •  22 September 2022

Key Points

  • Geomagnetic sudden impulses caused by solar wind shocks create GICs that may be hazardous to power systems at low-to-middle latitudes

  • Statistical analysis of solar wind shocks and GIC-index data derived from magnetic field measurements over the Australian region

  • Statistical model is a function of solar wind dynamic pressure, speed, and geomagnetic latitude with good out-of-sample predictive power

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Validating the LDi and LCi indices in the Southern Hemisphere

  •  18 September 2022

Key Points

  • Geomagnetic indices LDi and LCi successfully now-cast local geomagnetic disturbances and GICs respectively in the Southern Hemisphere

  • Comparison to measured GIC shows that LCi seems to perform slightly better than dH/dt as a proxy for GIC

  • We present a method for rederiving SYM-H indices using the LDi index

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Auroral Drivers of Large dB∕dt During Geomagnetic Storms

  •  26 August 2022

Key Points

  • We study disturbances responsible for geomagnetically induced currents by examining auroral drivers of large dB∕dt during geomagnetic storms

  • Large dB∕dt is often driven by expanding auroral bulges, streamers, poleward boundary intensifications, omega bands, and pulsating auroras

  • The onset, spatial variability, and duration of large dB/dt are well explained by those of the auroras

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International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real-time weather predictions

Key Points

  • New models for the F2 peak height hmF2 in IRI-2016
  • Development of the Real-Time International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)
  • Improved description of IRI ion composition at low and high solar activities

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

free access

The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

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Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Key Points

  • The median symmetric accuracy and symmetric signed percentage bias are introduced to address some drawbacks of current metrics
  • The spread of a multiplicative linear model can be robustly estimated using the log accuracy ratio
  • The properties of the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias are demonstrated on radiation belt examples

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A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

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Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

Key Points

  • We provide a broad overview of the status of the GIC field
  • We utilize the Applications Readiness Levels (ARL) concept to quantify the maturity of our GIC-related modeling and applications
  • This paper is the high-level report of the NASA Living With a Star GIC Working Group findings

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Modeling geomagnetically induced currents

Key Points

  • GIC modeling can now include geomagnetic disturbance characteristics and Earth conductivity to calculate GIC throughout a power system
  • Inclusion of geomagnetic disturbance characteristics and 3-D Earth conductivity structure in GIC modeling is often limited by lack of data
  • GIC modeling has a high state of application readiness and is used for hazard assessments and real-time geomagnetic disturbance management

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Midlatitude Plasma Bubbles Over China and Adjacent Areas During a Magnetic Storm on 8 September 2017

Key Points

  • Postsunset midlatitude plasma bubbles were observed over China and adjacent areas using GNSS TEC, Swarm Ne, and ionosonde data
  • The plasma bubbles were triggered by PPEF and TID in equatorial regions and extended along the magnetic field lines to 50°N (45.5 MLAT)
  • Plasma bubbles might reach an altitude of 6,600 km over the magnetic equator with the upper limit of upward drift speed being around 700 m/s

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Open access

Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm: March 1989 Geoelectric Hazards and Impacts on United States Power Systems

Key Points

  • Electric-power system interference was concentrated where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric field amplitudes were high

  • High geoelectric hazards and numerous power-system anomalies were realized in the Eastern United States, near many large cities

  • Power-system impact data provide important, if partial, validation of retrospectively constructed geoelectric field maps

Plain Language Summary

Electric fields induced in the Earth during magnetic storms can drive uncontrolled currents in electric-power systems, interfering with their operation. Geomagnetically induced currents realized during the magnetic storm of March 1989 caused a blackout in Québec, Canada, and, in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, they caused operational interference for electric-power companies and damaged a high-voltage transformer. In support of projects for estimating geoelectric hazards and improving power-system resilience, maps are made of March 1989 magnetic-storm geoelectric hazards and corresponding impacts on United States power systems. Results are based on modeling geomagnetic monitoring data, geoelectromagnetic survey data, and a compilation of published reports of power-system interference. During the storm, electric-power system interference was concentrated where the lithosphere is relatively electrically resistive, and when and where the geoelectric field was of high amplitude. This was particularly true in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, near many of America's largest cities, and in the upper Midwest. Retrospective analyses, such as this one for the March 1989 storm, show where utility companies might concentrate their efforts to mitigate the impacts of future magnetic superstorms.

Open access

Beating 1 Sievert: Optimal Radiation Shielding of Astronauts on a Mission to Mars

Key Points

  • Space missions to Mars should be scheduled to be launched during solar max

  • Optimal spacecraft shielding is ~30 g/cm2, which allows long-duration flights of ~4 years

  • Increase of shielding thickness beyond ~30 g/cm2 results in dose increase

Plain Language Summary

Space particle radiation is one of the main concerns in planning long-term human space missions. There are two main types of hazardous particle radiation: (a) solar energetic particles (SEP) originating from the Sun and (b) galactic cosmic rays (GCR) that come from the distant galaxies in space. Fluxes in particles of solar origin maximize during solar maximum when particles originating from the distant galaxies are more efficiently deflected from the solar system during times when the sun is active. Our calculations clearly demonstrate that the best time for launching a human space flight to Mars is during the solar maximum, as it is possible to shield from SEP particles. Our simulations show that an increase in shielding creates an increase in secondary radiation produced by the most energetic GCR, which results in a higher dose, introducing a limit to a mission duration. We estimate that a potential mission to Mars should not exceed approximately 4 years. This study shows that while space radiation imposes strict limitations and presents technological difficulties for the human mission to Mars, such a mission is still viable.

Open access

The Geomagnetic Kp Index and Derived Indices of Geomagnetic Activity

Key Points

  • Production and distribution of nowcast and definitive Kp index and derived products

  • Kp is estimated to have decreased from 1932 to 2020 by one third of a unit due to geomagnetic secular variation

  • Improved agreement between nowcast and definitive Kp since August 2020

Open access

Unveiling the Space Weather During the Starlink Satellites Destruction Event on 4 February 2022

Key Points

  • We reveal the space weather process during 3–4 February 2022 geomagnetic storms, from the Sun to the satellite orbiting atmosphere

  • Two coronal mass ejections led to the unexpected complex sequential storms and enhanced global atmospheric density over 20% at 210 km

  • This event calls for the urgent need of accurate space weather prediction and collaborations between industry and space weather community

Plain Language Summary

The operating satellites in low-Earth orbit give the rapid information transfer between the satellites and the Earth. At the same time, these satellites are continuously slowed down and affected by the dense atmosphere of the Earth, which is referred to as the atmospheric drag. This effect can be greater during space weather events such as geomagnetic storms. Over the past years, thousands of Starlink satellites have been deployed by the SpaceX company into low-Earth orbit. However, on 4th February, 38 Starlink satellites were destroyed before they were lifted to a higher Earth orbit, which brought an economic loss estimated to be several tens of millions of dollars. Geomagnetic indices indicated two successive geomagnetic storms, which could warm the upper atmosphere and increase the atmospheric drag. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review on the process of space weather during this event from the Sun all the way to the terrestrial atmosphere. We have illustrated the solar eruption, solar wind propagation, and atmospheric density enhancement, using both observed data and model simulations. This study calls for more accurate modeling and better understanding of space weather as well as collaborations between industry and space weather community.

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

Plain Language Summary

In the last decade, machine learning has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications. In particular, the combination of massive data sets and computing with specialized processors (graphics processing units, or GPUs) can perform as well or better than humans in tasks like image classification and game playing. Space weather is a discipline that lives between academia and industry, given the relevant physical effects on satellites and power grids in a variety of applications, and the field therefore stands to benefit from the advances made in industrial applications. Today, machine learning poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the space weather community. The challenge is that the current data science revolution has not been fully embraced, possibly because space physicists remain skeptical of the gains achievable with machine learning. If the community can master the relevant technical skills, they should be able to appreciate what is possible within a few years time and what is possible within a decade. The clearest opportunity lies in creating space weather forecasting models that can respond in real time and that are built on both physics predictions and on observed data.

free access

The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

free access

A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

free access

On the Little-Known Consequences of the 4 August 1972 Ultra-Fast Coronal Mass Ejecta: Facts, Commentary, and Call to Action

Key Points

  • The 4 August 1972 flare, shock, and geomagnetic storm are components of a Carrington-class event
  • The event was associated with a nearly instantaneous, unintended detonation of dozens of sea mines near Hai Phong, North Vietnam
  • The entire series of events in August 1972 should be viewed as a grand challenge to current-day space weather models

Plain Language Summary

The extreme space weather events of early August 1972 had significant impact on the U.S. Navy, which have not been widely reported. These effects, long buried in the Vietnam War archives, add credence to the severity of the storm: a nearly instantaneous, unintended detonation of dozens of sea mines south of Hai Phong, North Vietnam on 4 August 1972. This event occurred near the end of the Vietnam War. The U.S. Navy attributed the dramatic event to magnetic perturbations of solar storms. In researching these events we determined that the widespread electric- and communication-grid disturbances that plagued North America and the disturbances in southeast Asia late on 4 August likely resulted from propagation of major eruptive activity from the Sun to the Earth. The activity fits the description of a Carrington-class storm minus the low-latitude aurora reported in 1859. We provide insight into the solar, geophysical, and military circumstances of this extraordinary situation. In our view this storm deserves a scientific revisit as a grand challenge for the space weather community, as it provides space-age terrestrial observations of what was likely a Carrington-class storm.

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On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events

Key Points

  • Probability of a Carrington event occurring over next decade is ~12%

  • Space physics datasets often display a power-law distribution

  • Power-law distribution can be exploited to predict extreme events

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The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

Key Points

  • The 23-27 May 1967 event was a “Great” solar and geospace storm
  • First Air Force Solar Forecasting Unit partially mitigated the impacts of extreme solar radio bursts on U.S. military
  • The storm led to military recognition of space environment effects as an operational concern and helped establish a forecasting system

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