Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 06, 2022

Solar activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 6, 2022

Activity level: Low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C2.5 - C6.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 135-152
Events: class C (6-15/day), class M (1-3/period/day), class X (0-0/period/day),
proton (0-0/period/day)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 60 - 150

Simona Beerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 06, 2022

Quiet: Oct 5 - 6
Unsettled: Oct 2 - 6
Active: Sep 30, Oct 1, 3 - 4
Minor storm: Sep 30, Oct 1, 3 - 4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Coming hours, we expect an active episode with probable minor storm 
event. This storming event can occur just at evening, September 30. 
Since October 1, we expect active conditions continuing.
The other active episode with possible storming event is expected about 
October 3 - 4 because of coronal hole 28/+4. Last CME effect can be 
enhanced by HSS caused by this coronal hole.
Since Tuesday, October 4, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to 
unsettled level. The unsettled conditions are expected to the end of 
currently forecasted period, only the last day of this period, Thursday, 
October 6, geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet conditions is 
possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere September 30 - October 06, 2022

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– September 29, 2022

(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity,
published in the years 1978 - 2021.
The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe without a
computer.  I will add it next time.
An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic activity
during the night of the 24th-25th  September UTC.
Even further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar activity.
Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances: September 30
and especially October 1!

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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