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Solar activity forecast for the period December 02 - December 08, 2022

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B7.5 - C2.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 100-125
Events: class C (1-8/day), class M (0-5/period), class X (0-1/period),
proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 70 - 180

Jana Hrabalova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 02 - December 08, 2022

Quiet: Dec 6 - 8
Unsettled: Dec 2 - 4, 8
Active: Dec 4 - 5
Minor storm: possible Dec 4 - 5
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

At November 30, we registered minor storming event (local K-index = 5).
We expect the next active/minor storming event about Sunday, December 4, 
or Monday, December 5, respectively.
Next days, we expect at most unsettled cnditions. The second half of 
currently forecasted period, we expect geomagnetic activity decrase to 
quiet to unsettled level. At the end of currently forecasted period, a 
stable quiet episode is possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 02 - December 08, 2022

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– December 1, 2022
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity,
published in the years 1978 – 2021.)

The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the course of
shortwave propagation conditions in the last seven days differed
significantly from the seven days before. First of all, the solar wind
speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between
700 and 800 km/s) and at the same time the activity of the Earth's magnetic
field has been mostly increased.
The series of changes began on 25 November at 02:30 UT when a shock wave in
the solar wind hit the Earth. In the ionosphere we could first observe an
increase in MUF. Further development of the disturbance continued only by
further irregular deterioration of the shortwave propagation conditions.
Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs),
did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity, but without
the possibility of more precise timing.
On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the southeastern
limb of the Sun. So solar activity will not drop, but will probably rise
again over the next few days. Shortwave propagation conditions should
therefore no longer deteriorate, rather the shortest shortwave bands will
gradually open up a little better. In the northern hemisphere of the Earth,
however, the opening intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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