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Issue Information

  •  29 November 2022
Open access

An Optimized Solution to Long-Distance Flight Routes Under Extreme Cosmic Radiation

  •  23 November 2022

Key Points

  • Pilots of long-haul flights in high latitude areas may be exposed to cosmic radiation doses higher than the European Union control standard

  • Both cosmic radiation and fuel consumption are considered for tactical air traffic management

  • A flexible altitude assignment approach can meet radiological protection regulations under accurate cosmic radiation forecasts

Open access

Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics-Based Whole Geospace Modeling

  •  22 November 2022

Key Points

  • Our model predicts up to ∼150% enhancement in neutral density along Starlink orbit during a moderate geomagnetic storm on 3–4 February 2022

  • Empirical models tend to underestimate storm effects in thermospheric density enhancement

  • The whole geospace model resolves the gradual recovery and wave perturbations missed by empirical models

Open access

Modeling of the Subsolar Magnetopause Motion Under Interplanetary Magnetic Field Southward Turning

  •  13 November 2022

Key Points

  • A new analytical model of the subsolar magnetopause motion under sudden interplanetary magnetic field southward turning has been developed

  • This model describes time-dependent subsolar magnetopause motion based on magnetopause erosion

  • This model has been successfully applied to data-driven simulations of the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm event

Open access

Automated Detection of coronaL MAss Ejecta origiNs for Space Weather AppliCations (ALMANAC)

  •  13 November 2022

Key Points

  • The software package presented can forecast the early signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the low solar atmosphere in real time

  • The goal of this work is to improve the forecasting of CME arrival times and potential impact when used as part of a software suite

  • Applied to historical data sets, the method can lead to a greater scientific understanding on the connection between CMEs and space weather

Open access

Leveraging the CYGNSS Spaceborne GNSS-R Observations to Detect Ionospheric Irregularities Over the Oceans: Method and Verification

  •  12 November 2022

Key Points

  • An ionospheric irregularities detection method is improved by leveraging the Cyclone global navigation satellite system spaceborne GNSS reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations

  • The ionospheric irregularities observed by spaceborne GNSS-R are comprehensively verified by GNSS, ionosonde, F3/C, and Swarm measurements

  • Ionospheric irregularity observations using spaceborne GNSS-R are in good consistency with other ground-based and space-based data

Open access

Investigating the Impacts of Ionospheric Irregularities on Precise Point Positioning Over China and Its Mechanism

  •  11 November 2022

Key Points

  • Kinematic precise point positioning (PPP) performances in the multi-event condition of ionospheric irregularities over China are evaluated

  • The ionospheric irregularities caused increased cycle slips and degraded PPP solutions in the south of China from sunset to midnight

  • Extensive misjudged cycle slips are dominantly responsible for the degradation of PPP solution during the period of irregularities

Open access

Amplitude Scintillation Severity and Fading Profiles Under Alignment Between GPS Propagation Paths and Equatorial Plasma Bubbles

  •  11 November 2022

Key Points

  • Space weather impacts on Global Navigation Satellite System communication over low-latitude regions

  • Equatorial plasma bubbles field-aligned nature and its influence on transionospheric signals aligned with these depleted plasma structures

  • Ionospheric scintillation and deep fading characteristics according to the propagation path

Open access

Over 20-Year Global Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of Earth's Magnetosphere

  •  5 November 2022

Key Points

  • Twenty three years of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction modeled with version 5 of the Grand Unified Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Simulation (GUMICS-5) global magnetohydrodynamic model

  • Results are compared to empirical models of magnetosphere, ionosphere, and geomagnetic indices

  • GUMICS-5 reproduces outer magnetosphere well over several solar cycles, Kp is reproduced better than auroral electrojet, cross-polar cap potential is not reproduced well

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Issue Information

  •  3 November 2022
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Open access

Two-way assessment of ionospheric maps performance over the Brazilian region: Global versus regional products

  •  2 December 2022

Key Points

  • Assessment and comparison of global and regional ionospheric maps using ionosonde data and GNSS positioning, over a low latitude region

  • GIM and RIM analysis considering a challenging scenario, the Brazilian region in a week with a geomagnetic storm

  • Proposal of a hybrid ionospheric product, combining regional and global solutions, which presented the best results in GNSS positioning

Open access

The EMERALD model for the estimation of the radial diffusion coefficients in the outer Van Allen belt

  •  30 November 2022

Key Points

  • A machine learning model is developed to derive DLL for the outer radiation belt

  • The model uses solar wind parameters as input and can output estimations for user-defined L* values

  • The model’s accuracy is demonstrated to be high and to outperform established semi-empirical models

Open access

A proper use of the adjacent land-based observatory magnetic field data to account for the geomagnetic disturbances during offshore directional drilling

  •  18 November 2022

Key Points

  • We present an approach to efficiently calculate the spatio-temporal evolution of a magnetic field in a given conductivity model of the Earth

  • We show that sea level and seabed horizontal magnetic field differ significantly

  • We propose and justify a formalism allowing us to calculate more accurately seabed magnetic field signals using adjacent land-based data

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International Reference Ionosphere 2016: From ionospheric climate to real-time weather predictions

Key Points

  • New models for the F2 peak height hmF2 in IRI-2016
  • Development of the Real-Time International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)
  • Improved description of IRI ion composition at low and high solar activities

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

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Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Key Points

  • The median symmetric accuracy and symmetric signed percentage bias are introduced to address some drawbacks of current metrics
  • The spread of a multiplicative linear model can be robustly estimated using the log accuracy ratio
  • The properties of the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias are demonstrated on radiation belt examples

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Geomagnetically induced currents: Science, engineering, and applications readiness

Key Points

  • We provide a broad overview of the status of the GIC field
  • We utilize the Applications Readiness Levels (ARL) concept to quantify the maturity of our GIC-related modeling and applications
  • This paper is the high-level report of the NASA Living With a Star GIC Working Group findings

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A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

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Modeling geomagnetically induced currents

Key Points

  • GIC modeling can now include geomagnetic disturbance characteristics and Earth conductivity to calculate GIC throughout a power system
  • Inclusion of geomagnetic disturbance characteristics and 3-D Earth conductivity structure in GIC modeling is often limited by lack of data
  • GIC modeling has a high state of application readiness and is used for hazard assessments and real-time geomagnetic disturbance management

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Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Key Points

  • Current forecasts of the arrival time of CME-driven shocks have an average accuracy of ±10 hr, with a standard deviation of ±20 hr
  • Most accurate model can forecast the arrival time of CME shocks with an average accuracy of −1 hr, and standard deviation of 15 hr
  • Arrival time forecasts have not improved in accuracy during the previous 6 years

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Open access

Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm: March 1989 Geoelectric Hazards and Impacts on United States Power Systems

Key Points

  • Electric-power system interference was concentrated where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric field amplitudes were high

  • High geoelectric hazards and numerous power-system anomalies were realized in the Eastern United States, near many large cities

  • Power-system impact data provide important, if partial, validation of retrospectively constructed geoelectric field maps

Plain Language Summary

Electric fields induced in the Earth during magnetic storms can drive uncontrolled currents in electric-power systems, interfering with their operation. Geomagnetically induced currents realized during the magnetic storm of March 1989 caused a blackout in Québec, Canada, and, in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, they caused operational interference for electric-power companies and damaged a high-voltage transformer. In support of projects for estimating geoelectric hazards and improving power-system resilience, maps are made of March 1989 magnetic-storm geoelectric hazards and corresponding impacts on United States power systems. Results are based on modeling geomagnetic monitoring data, geoelectromagnetic survey data, and a compilation of published reports of power-system interference. During the storm, electric-power system interference was concentrated where the lithosphere is relatively electrically resistive, and when and where the geoelectric field was of high amplitude. This was particularly true in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, near many of America's largest cities, and in the upper Midwest. Retrospective analyses, such as this one for the March 1989 storm, show where utility companies might concentrate their efforts to mitigate the impacts of future magnetic superstorms.

Open access

Beating 1 Sievert: Optimal Radiation Shielding of Astronauts on a Mission to Mars

Key Points

  • Space missions to Mars should be scheduled to be launched during solar max

  • Optimal spacecraft shielding is ~30 g/cm2, which allows long-duration flights of ~4 years

  • Increase of shielding thickness beyond ~30 g/cm2 results in dose increase

Plain Language Summary

Space particle radiation is one of the main concerns in planning long-term human space missions. There are two main types of hazardous particle radiation: (a) solar energetic particles (SEP) originating from the Sun and (b) galactic cosmic rays (GCR) that come from the distant galaxies in space. Fluxes in particles of solar origin maximize during solar maximum when particles originating from the distant galaxies are more efficiently deflected from the solar system during times when the sun is active. Our calculations clearly demonstrate that the best time for launching a human space flight to Mars is during the solar maximum, as it is possible to shield from SEP particles. Our simulations show that an increase in shielding creates an increase in secondary radiation produced by the most energetic GCR, which results in a higher dose, introducing a limit to a mission duration. We estimate that a potential mission to Mars should not exceed approximately 4 years. This study shows that while space radiation imposes strict limitations and presents technological difficulties for the human mission to Mars, such a mission is still viable.

Open access

Unveiling the Space Weather During the Starlink Satellites Destruction Event on 4 February 2022

Key Points

  • We reveal the space weather process during 3–4 February 2022 geomagnetic storms, from the Sun to the satellite orbiting atmosphere

  • Two coronal mass ejections led to the unexpected complex sequential storms and enhanced global atmospheric density over 20% at 210 km

  • This event calls for the urgent need of accurate space weather prediction and collaborations between industry and space weather community

Plain Language Summary

The operating satellites in low-Earth orbit give the rapid information transfer between the satellites and the Earth. At the same time, these satellites are continuously slowed down and affected by the dense atmosphere of the Earth, which is referred to as the atmospheric drag. This effect can be greater during space weather events such as geomagnetic storms. Over the past years, thousands of Starlink satellites have been deployed by the SpaceX company into low-Earth orbit. However, on 4th February, 38 Starlink satellites were destroyed before they were lifted to a higher Earth orbit, which brought an economic loss estimated to be several tens of millions of dollars. Geomagnetic indices indicated two successive geomagnetic storms, which could warm the upper atmosphere and increase the atmospheric drag. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review on the process of space weather during this event from the Sun all the way to the terrestrial atmosphere. We have illustrated the solar eruption, solar wind propagation, and atmospheric density enhancement, using both observed data and model simulations. This study calls for more accurate modeling and better understanding of space weather as well as collaborations between industry and space weather community.

Open access

The Geomagnetic Kp Index and Derived Indices of Geomagnetic Activity

Key Points

  • Production and distribution of nowcast and definitive Kp index and derived products

  • Kp is estimated to have decreased from 1932 to 2020 by one third of a unit due to geomagnetic secular variation

  • Improved agreement between nowcast and definitive Kp since August 2020

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The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Key Points

  • Machine learning (ML) has enabled advances in industrial applications; space weather researchers are adopting and adapting ML techniques
  • This introduction to machine learning concepts is tailored for the Space Weather community, but applicable to many other communities
  • This introduction describes forecasting opportunities in a gray-box paradigm that combines physics-based and machine learning approaches

Plain Language Summary

In the last decade, machine learning has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications. In particular, the combination of massive data sets and computing with specialized processors (graphics processing units, or GPUs) can perform as well or better than humans in tasks like image classification and game playing. Space weather is a discipline that lives between academia and industry, given the relevant physical effects on satellites and power grids in a variety of applications, and the field therefore stands to benefit from the advances made in industrial applications. Today, machine learning poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the space weather community. The challenge is that the current data science revolution has not been fully embraced, possibly because space physicists remain skeptical of the gains achievable with machine learning. If the community can master the relevant technical skills, they should be able to appreciate what is possible within a few years time and what is possible within a decade. The clearest opportunity lies in creating space weather forecasting models that can respond in real time and that are built on both physics predictions and on observed data.

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The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7)

Key Points

  • To provide a source point for user information about the 10.cm solar radio flux
  • How it's measured and how accurate it is
  • Cautionary information about how it should be used

free access

A 21st Century View of the March 1989 Magnetic Storm

Key Points

  • The extreme space weather conditions in March 1989 were the result of successive CMEs
  • A secondary CME (resulting from a less intense flare) was the “trigger” for the extreme event
  • The Hydro-Québec system collapse occurred well before Dst reached its extreme value

free access

On the Little-Known Consequences of the 4 August 1972 Ultra-Fast Coronal Mass Ejecta: Facts, Commentary, and Call to Action

Key Points

  • The 4 August 1972 flare, shock, and geomagnetic storm are components of a Carrington-class event
  • The event was associated with a nearly instantaneous, unintended detonation of dozens of sea mines near Hai Phong, North Vietnam
  • The entire series of events in August 1972 should be viewed as a grand challenge to current-day space weather models

Plain Language Summary

The extreme space weather events of early August 1972 had significant impact on the U.S. Navy, which have not been widely reported. These effects, long buried in the Vietnam War archives, add credence to the severity of the storm: a nearly instantaneous, unintended detonation of dozens of sea mines south of Hai Phong, North Vietnam on 4 August 1972. This event occurred near the end of the Vietnam War. The U.S. Navy attributed the dramatic event to magnetic perturbations of solar storms. In researching these events we determined that the widespread electric- and communication-grid disturbances that plagued North America and the disturbances in southeast Asia late on 4 August likely resulted from propagation of major eruptive activity from the Sun to the Earth. The activity fits the description of a Carrington-class storm minus the low-latitude aurora reported in 1859. We provide insight into the solar, geophysical, and military circumstances of this extraordinary situation. In our view this storm deserves a scientific revisit as a grand challenge for the space weather community, as it provides space-age terrestrial observations of what was likely a Carrington-class storm.

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Radiation Effects on Satellites During Extreme Space Weather Events

Key Points

  • Extreme space radiation environments are used to calculate cumulative engineering effects on spacecraft in geostationary and medium Earth orbits
  • Extreme enhancements to trapped electrons in the Van Allen belts cause more cumulative damage than extreme solar energetic particle events
  • A temporary enhancement in trapped electron intensity could result in up to 7.6% degradation of solar cell power capacity

Plain Language Summary

Satellites are exposed to a variety of sources of potentially damaging space radiation. One of the most important of these is the population of high-energy electrons that lies trapped by the Earth's magnetic field—the so-called Van Allen belts. During an extreme space weather event, trapped electron fluxes in the Van Allen belts can increase by several orders of magnitude in intensity, leading to an enhanced risk of satellite damage. One example of this damage is degradation in the power-generating capability of satellite solar panels. The threat from space weather in this context has hitherto been associated with solar proton events, that is, bursts of energetic protons that are sporadically emitted from the Sun. However, our analysis shows that enhancements in the Van Allen belt electron population can exceed the solar proton threat, which has implications for the protection of satellites from such phenomena. It is essential that sufficiently robust engineering design measures are put in place, in order to ensure the future reliability of satellite technology, on which our society is increasingly reliant.

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The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

Key Points

  • The 23-27 May 1967 event was a “Great” solar and geospace storm
  • First Air Force Solar Forecasting Unit partially mitigated the impacts of extreme solar radio bursts on U.S. military
  • The storm led to military recognition of space environment effects as an operational concern and helped establish a forecasting system

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