Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period December 30 - January 05, 2023

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.5 - C3.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 130-165
Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (0-7/period), class X (0-1/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 85- 200

Jana Hrabalova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January 05, 2023

Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2 - 3
Unsettled: Dec 30 - 31, Jan 3 - 5
Active: Dec 31 - Jan 1, Jan 3 - 5
Minor storm: Jan 3 - 4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

We expect transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the coming 
two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic activity 
enhancement again with possible active event.
The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4 in 
connection with coronal hole 60/-3.
Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions generally.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– December 29, 2022
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity,
published in the years 1978 – 2021.)

A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would remain so
until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had relatively stable
magnetic fields, not enough to generate major flares. At the same time, a
series of geomagnetically disturbed days continued until 27 December, with
highly variable and difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave
propagation conditions. Average days were irregularly interspersed with
above-average ones.

From December 25, the AR3169 suddenly began to increase. Trailing behind it
is AR3171 while both are now approaching the western edge of the solar disk
now.

The CME, observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament explosion,
likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the slow decline in
solar wind speed during the third decade of December.

According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class geomagnetic
storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic field is likely to hit
the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). So we can expect increased
geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher latitudes again.

Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the far side
of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their heliographic
longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk. Ttherefore total solar
activity should not drop much anytime soon.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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