Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period January 27 - February 02, 2023

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.0 - C3.8
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-190
Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (0-5/day), class X (0-3/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 150-250

Jana Hrabalova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 27 - February 02, 2023

Quiet: Jan 30 - 31
Unsettled: Jan 27 - 29, Feb 1 - 2
Active: Jan 27, Feb 1 - 2
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we expect at most unsettled conditions. Active events are 
possible about Friday, January 27, and also at the end of currently 
forecasted period, i.e. February 1 - 2.
Till Monday, January 30, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease to 
quiet to unsettled level. Then, since Wednesday, February 1, geomagnetic 
activity increase is possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere January 27 - February 02, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– January 26, 2023
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity,
published in the years 1978 – 2021.)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
– January 26, 2023

We have had a week of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots
visible to the naked eye. These were AR3190 and then AR3192. The ejected
CMEs did produce auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic
disturbances were mostly short-lived, they did not cause a noticeable
deterioration in shortwave propagation conditions.

A particular phenomenon was the CME that hit the Earth on 17 January at
around 2200 UT. At the same time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF (C/2022
E3) - and broke it! A piece of the tail of comet ZTF was chipped off and
then carried away by the solar wind.

In recent days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it
produced no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large regions,
AR3190 in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are beyond the edge of
the solar disk by January 26. This is associated with a significant drop in
solar activity. While we know of other active regions beyond the eastern
limb of the solar disk, these are not large enough to expect a repeat of
the January pattern in February. But we can expect a similarly erratic
pattern with limited forecasting capabilities.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
http://ok1hh.sweb.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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