Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period February 24 - March 02, 2023

Activity level: moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.5 - C4.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 169-190
Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-4/day), class X (1/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 70-160

Bozena Solarova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 24 - March 02, 2023

Quiet: Feb 25 - 26, Mar 1 - 3
Unsettled: Feb 27 - 28, Mar 1
Active: Feb 24, 27
Minor storm: unlikely Feb 24, possible Feb 27
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Because of current coronal hole, the first active event is possible at Friday, February 24. Nevertheless, this day, we expect geomagnetic activity at the range of unsettled and active level.
The other active event is possible about Monday, February 27. Between these days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere February 24 - March 02, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – February 23, 2023
(Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field activity, published in the years 1978 – 2021.)

A week ago, on February 17, we vainly awaited the arrival of a CME, at least a weak G1-class geomagnetic storm. Instead, on February 17, 2016 UT, we were treated to a strong X2.2-class solar flare in the newly emerging sunspot group AR3229. X-ray and UV radiation as well as triggered the Dellinger effect over the Americas. Frequencies up to 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour after the flare. The arrival of the CME affected the Earth's magnetic field as of 10:39 UTC on February 20. However, most of the particle cloud passed outside the Earth, therefore there was no geomagnetic storm, but only an increase in activity.

The new AR3234 produced M-class flares in the following days. Dellinger events could only affect radio wave propagation up to 20 MHz (as long as we had the Sun overhead, of course). Thereafter no significant flares were observed, so no CMEs were directed towards us. But that may change when AR3234 turns towards Earth. In other words, when the sun's rotation moves it to the central meridian, which will happen by the end of the week. Primarily, the overall activity of the Sun and most likely the Earth's magnetic field will depend on its activity.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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