Excerpt:

 

In this essay, I use a historical perspective on Russia’s and Soviet Union’s imperial ambitions to examine Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the need for the West to assist Ukraine decisively during and after the War. I emphasize that the part played by the countries of Central-East Europe in western response has been critical, as is and may in the future be, in a different way, the part played by China. Western sanctions have not been very effective as Europe has continued importing Russian oil and gas and most western firms have not left Russia. At the global level, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine also pretty much ensures that no country will ever give up its nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees by the Great Powers.

 

Russia’s Invasion in a Historical Perspective

 

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the prior annexation of Crimea on February 20, 2014 constitute a fundamental breach of international law. They also constitute direct contravention of the December 5, 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed inter alia by Russia, the United States and United Kingdom, giving Ukraine Security Assurances and prohibiting the signatory countries from threatening or using military force against Ukraine. In return, Ukraine agreed to move nuclear weapons from its territory to Russia. Russia’s invasion pretty much ensures that in the future no country in possession of nuclear arms will voluntarily give them up against security assurances. From a historical perspective, Putin’s invasion represents a continuation of Russia’s long-term drive to create and maintain an empire and a substantial sphere of political and economic dominance in Europe and Asia. Putin expressed this view continually during his rise to power and in his 2005 Annual State of the Nation Address he specifically termed the collapse of the Soviet empire the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Putin’s invasion and war in Ukraine has to be seen and interpreted in light of this historical perspective. (In a larger perspective, given the governance developments in Russia and China, the Ukraine war represents a fundamental philosophical conflict between the West and East [Russia and China] about the superiority of the democratic v. autocratic system of national and global political governance.)