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Solar activity forecast for the period June 30 - July 06, 2023

Activity level: mostly low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.5 - C3.8 
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 150-182
Events: class C (2-15/day), class M (0-5/day), class X (0-2/period), proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 100 - 250
 
Bozena Solarova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 30 - July 06, 2023

Quiet: Jun 30, Jul 3 - 6
Unsettled: Jul 1 - 3, 6
Active: Jul 1 - 2
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Next week, we do not expect any stroming event. The geomagnetic conditions can be enhanced to active level about Saturday, July 1, and Sunday, July 2. Till this day, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. Quiet to unsettled condition could be also expected since Monday, July 3. More unsettled conditions can be expected also at the end of currently forecasted period, about Thursday, July 6.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere June 30 - July 06, 2023

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – June 29, 2023

In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region ofAR3341. It happened on June 20 at 1709 UT near the southeastern limb of the solar disk. In the region where the Sun was just high, it caused the Dellinger effect. The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two days later. It ejected a CME into space, but not towards Earth. Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June (theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of 20 June).

On June 26, we may have been surprised by a sunspot group AR3354 just above the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It had not existed the day before. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.  Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to "beta-gama-delta", which means enough energy for powerful solar flares.

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far. AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days, so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger effect throughout the whole shortwave band.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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