Weekly forecast

Solar activity forecast for the period January 05 - January 11, 2024

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B9.0 - C2.2
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 136-156
Events: class C (2-9/day), class M (0-2/day), class X (0-1/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 60 - 160

Martina Pavelkova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 05 - January 11, 2024

Quiet: Jan 5 - 7, 9
Unsettled: Jan 7 - 9
Active: Jan 10 - 11
Minor storm: unilkely Jan 11
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Till Sunday, January 7, we expect at most quiet conditions with an 
isolated unsettled event only.
More unsettled conditions can occur since Monday, January 8.
An active episode is expectable at the end of currently forecasted 
period. i.e. about January 10 - 11.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere January 05 - January 11, 2024

The first celebrations of the end of the calendar year in Western
civilization are associated with the person of the canonized Pope Silvester
I, who died on the last day of the year 335. However, no one expected that
December 31, 2023 would be celebrated with fireworks all the way on the sun!

Helioseismological observations did focus on a large active region
approaching the northeastern limb of the solar disk from the far side, and
large spots on the far side of the Sun were seen by the camera of the
Perseverance rover on Mars. But no one actually expected a proton solar
flare, the largest in the current eleven-year cycle. The X5.0 eruption in
X-ray band 1 to 8 Angström occurred at 2155 UTC in NOAA/SWPC 3536 and was
the largest observed eruption since the X8.2 eruption on September 10,
2017. In the same sunspot group (in the previous solar rotation numbered
3514), an X2.8 eruption was observed on December 14, 2023, whereby this was
the strongest since the beginning of solar cycle 25 up to that point. In
particular, however, it also contributed to expectations of a further
increase in activity in the next year or two.

Four days later, AR 3536 is no longer as large as it was on the Sun's far
side and about half the size it was in December as AR 3514, but it is still
capable of producing moderate solar flares. Now AR 3536 is approaching the
central meridian from where a possible CME (within the next week) could
already be hitting Earth. At the same time, we expect a further increase in
solar radiation , which could improve propagation conditions in the DX
bands. But of course also worsen if a possible magstorm lasts longer or
even starts at night.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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