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Solar activity forecast for the period February 02 - February 08, 2024

Activity level: low to moderate
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B8.8 - C2.2
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 126-175
Events: class C (1-7/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0-0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 70 - 170

Vlastislav Feik
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 02 - February 08, 2024

Quiet: Feb 2, 6 - 8
Unsettled: Feb 2, 4 - 6
Active: Feb 3 - 4
Minor storm: possible Feb 3 - 4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Because of the last CME, the most active event can be expected during the coming weekend, i.e. February 3 - 4.
Then, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions return.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere February 02 - February 08, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – Febrary 1, 2024

A week ago, it appeared that more activity would come from the large sunspot group AR3561. But it has been quiet. But then another larger one, AR3559, surprised us when energetic protons began to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere in the early hours of January 29 UT.

Such an event is called a "radiation storm", denoted by the letter S, and this one was classified as S2. The letter R denotes the effects of solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation, which in this case was caused by a fairly massive M6.8 class solar flare. The Dellinger effect with a maximum at 06:32 UT affected frequencies up to 30 MHz in the region of Western Australia and the adjacent Indian Ocean. Protons with an energy of 100 MeV hit the Earth's atmosphere for almost the entire day on 29 January, and protons with lower energies continued to hit on other days.

Only isolated, weaker C-class flares were observed in the following days. However, the Earth was not affected by the CME, its magnetic field remained calm to slightly unsettled, and so shortwave propagation conditions were generally between average to slightly above average.  However, the increased solar radiation caused regular daily openings of the upper shortwave bands, including the 10-meter band.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

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