Týdenní předpověď

Solar activity forecast for the period November 01 - November 07, 2024

Activity level: moderate to high
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C2.0 - C5.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 130-280
Events: class C (1-18/day), class M (5-20/period), class X (0-3/period), proton (0-2/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 110-250

Michael Vavra
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 01 - November 07, 2024

Quiet: Nov 1 - 2, 6
Unsettled: Nov 4 - 5
Active: Nov 3 - 4, 7
Minor storm: Nov 3 - 4, 7
Major storm:  unlikely Nov 7
Severe storm: 0

Currently, we record a quiet intermezzo between the last active event (Oct 29 - 30, local K-index at the Budkov observatory reached level 5) and the other expected active event.
The first active event can be expected within the coming three days, and also, at the end of currently forecasted period, i.e. November 7.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere November 01 - November 07, 2024

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere – October 31, 2024

We know only approximately what the Earth's ionosphere looked like between March 1755 and June 1766 thanks to observations of the Sun in Cycle 1. But we do know what it looked like in cycle 19, which ran from April 1954 to October 1964. Although I was a novice radio amateur at the time, I can testify that the shortwave propagation conditions at the peak of Cycle 19 (1958) were wonderful!

As of December 2019, Cycle 25 is in operation. It was supposed to be low, fortunately it is not. Its maximum is now underway, perhaps a second will follow next year. It is fabulous, judging by the above and the many interesting effects, including, for example, auroras. But unfortunately not if we judge them by the current conditions of ionospheric shortwave propagation. An explanation of why this is now the case will surely be forthcoming - but perhaps cycle 26 will be underway.

A week ago, as expected, large active regions and corresponding groups of spots appeared at the southeastern limb of the solar disk. We are now seeing them near the central meridian. This has increased the likelihood of Earth being hit by particles that will eject subsequent flares. It seems that not only these, but also disturbances in the geomagnetic field and then fluctuations in the ionospheric propagation field can be counted on with certainty in the coming days. Given that we have already seen simultaneously observed active regions on the Sun during the last solar rotation, presumably a 27-day recurrence will be a good aid to prediction.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
Emails: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU

Odběr týdenních předpovědí

Pro odběr týdenních předpovědí přes email se prosím přihlaste na: sunwatch "at-sign" asu.cas.cz