Predictive modelling for Heritage care using Geomedia GRID

GIS presents a powerful tool while being used by archaeologists in terms of heritage care. The Institute of Archaeology, before any rescue excavation, attempts to provide a preliminary survey evaluating the archaeological potential of the site which is about to be destroyed by building activity. This research activities use widely the tools developed for predictive modelling. Topographical settings of the particular sites are completed with their environmental variables and current archaeological history (if it’s there any) so locality is then considered in wider context, which is useful especially in cases when the region in question is meant to be surveyed by surface prospection as well. The aim of predictive modelling in terms of heritage care should evaluate the archaeological potential of the site so the designers can either avoid the most perspective areas or being more informed about the time and finance costs. The whole investigated area is usually divided into several levels of archaeological potential according to the results of the predictive modelling analyses.

Case study – archaeological potential of the VINOŘ site (SE Prague)

The VINOŘ site is a typical case of rescue archaeology project. It is very archaeologically rich area with long research history going from excavations to extensive surface surveys. The main axe of this region forms the Vinořský stream a tributary of Labe River along whose banks many prehistoric sites both of settlement and burial type found their place. At some place within this region, a golf course is meant to be established in future and investors asked the Institute of Archaeology to carry out the preliminary survey.

We used the topography and social variables such as DEM, geology, water network and so far known archaeological sites and treated them as primary layers of information. From these variables the secondary information layers were created: slope, aspect, local relief, distance from water streams, subsoil conditions and density of archaeological events.

By using the principles of Boolean analyses of environmental and social variables the “archaeological suitability” was encoded in three-level grids which presented the result information layers. Overlays of all information layers then formed the final predictive model with zones of archaeological potential encoded from 1 (the lowest) to 3 (the highest).

 

The primary information layer showing investigated area with its surroundings (built up areas, vegetation cover, current water network and communications). Yellow polygons and red dots represent the archaeological sites generated from digital database created at Institute of Archaeology (“ADČ”)

3d visualisation of basic primary information layer. DEM of south-western area of Labe river with its southern tributaries (Vinořský, Mratínský, Zápský streams). The rectangle represents the area of predictive modelling with polygon of the future golf course.

Two maps from historic military mapping were used for completing the primary information layers especially in case of reconstruction of potential water network (as alternative to current one).

Examples of secondary information layers show the overlay of distances to potential water supply, density of archaeological events, topographical and terrain settings such as slope, aspect and RIM index.

 

The final predictive model of the archaeological potential around VINOŘ golf course comprising both environmental and social variables. Three colours represent the three levels of archaeological potential: orange – the highest, white – the lowest.

Title page of final report handed to the investor.

Alžběta Danielisová,danielisova@arup.cas.cz